Corbin Burnes is reportedly seeking more than $245 million

Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting player is still unsigned despite the generally robust and fast-moving rotation market.

Most of the discussion surrounding Burnes lately has centered around some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (though to a lesser extent in the case of Baltimore). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that San Francisco has a permanent offer on the table, but points out that the Giants could choose other destinations if there is still no resolution from Burnes.

The terms of San Francisco’s proposal are unclear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that is at least equal to the $245 million guaranteed Stephan Strasburg received from the Nationals in the 2019–20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract was actually about $229 million after accounting for deferments.) The pre-defense guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history Yoshinobu Yamamoto $325 million contract with the Dodgers and the $324 million contracts Gerrit Cole Deal with the Yankees.

It’s no surprise that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are going after Strasburg’s money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes would get seven years and $200 million in early November. Essentially every starter that has signed so far has met or exceeded these (and most other) projections. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He received an eight-year, $218 million contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s forecast by two years and $62 million. Fried got an extra season and $43 million as Aaron Nola received last winter.

By virtually every prediction, Burnes was ahead of Fried. This makes something in the $220 million range feel like the lower bound of the former. Creating significant separation would put Burnes near or over the Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He had no significant injuries. This distinguishes him from Fried, who was out for three months in 2023 due to a strained flexor muscle in his forearm. Burnes has also reached greater heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The only question was a recent decline in swing-and-miss. Burnes struck out more than 35% of batters in 2020-21. In 2022, this value has fallen to around 30%. It has continued its downward trend over the last two seasons, dropping to a slightly above-average 23.1% this year. Even the “reduced” strikeout rate was essentially the same as Fried’s 23.2% rate, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That will be weighed against the question of which teams are still willing to offer a deal well over $200 million. The Yankees obviously would have been a Burnes suitor if they hadn’t signed Fried. They’re probably out of the picture now. It seems unlikely that the Mets will make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to the terms Walker Buhler on a one-year deal, giving their rotation significant upside. They may have enough salary cap space to go with Burnes, but they no longer face the same urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco may offer the best mix of purchasing power and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate No. 1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost Blake Snell went. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or track record (i.e Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They have extended Matt Chapman for $151 million in September before adding Willy Adames with a seven-year, $182 million free agent contract. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax amount at about $208 million, which puts them about $33 million below the base threshold. Her actual salary obligations are around $167 million. That’s nearly $40 million below last year’s spending levels. It’s not clear if the owners are willing to increase the Opening Day payroll again to more than $200 million, but in theory they could add Adames and Burnes without a significant increase in relative spending.

The Giants gave up their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1 million from their 1926 International Amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They would give up their third- and sixth-highest picks and an additional $500,000 from the international pool if they signed Burnes, who turned down a qualifying offer from Baltimore.