Could Pete Alonso return to the Mets on a short-term deal?

Pete Alonso‘s market hasn’t quite moved up the way he and his agent Scott Boras had hoped, although there’s still more than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so there’s plenty of time to get a deal done to achieve and still be able to afford Alonso normal spring training. One element that has likely impacted things, as with any high-profile free agent, is teams’ fears about asking price. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com has previously suggested that Boras Corporation has used contracts like Prince Fielder (nine years, $214 million) as a point of comparison in the negotiations.

Boras strongly denied this in his comments to SNY’s Andy Martino this morning. Boras tells Martino that a “10-year contract” like Fielder’s is simply “not relevant to the current Alonso negotiations.” (Fielder’s contract is actually 13 years old, but that only further emphasizes Boras’ point.)

Despite this setback, it is likely that talks over Alonso were put on hold for years. As is well known, the Mets offered him a seven-year, $158 million extension in 2023. This included Alonso’s final arbitration season (2024), in which he was paid $20.5 million. To come out on top on this bet on himself, he would have to top $137.5 million over the next six seasons.

Of course, not everything has to be in the form of a single contract. We’ve seen many free agents in the past show more muted free agent interest than expected, accept an opt-out deal, and come out on top over the course of multiple contracts. This isn’t the ideal approach for most players, but it can certainly work to the player’s advantage.

More specifically, this practice was common among both high-end and mid-range Boras customers. It doesn’t always work – just ask Jordan Montgomery – but there are many success stories.

Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon And Carlos Correa are all current examples. Chapman signed a three-year, $54 million contract with opt-outs in San Francisco and earned a $151 million extension. Ultimately, he will make $169 million over a seven-year term. Snell took two years and $62 million from the Giants last winter after reportedly turning down an offer from the Yankees in the $150 million range. (He has since claimed the figure was well below that figure.) He waived it and received $182 million from the Dodgers, bringing his six-year earnings to $214 million (though nearly a third of that was deferred). Rodon opted out of the second season of his own two-year, $44 million contract with the Giants and pocketed $162 million in the Bronx. Correa signed a three-year, $105.3 million contract in Minnesota, got out, and endured a strange free agent odyssey that still resulted in an additional $200 million guaranteed from Minnesota, even after two failed tests in San Francisco and Queens.

It’s not yet clear whether Alonso will ultimately take that route, but former Mets GM Jim Duquette (2003-04), now of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, reports that Boras and Alonso are offering a three-year, opt-out deal have Mets – and only the Mets. Despite the reported offer from the player’s camp, Duquette believes no deal can be completed for now.

A three-year deal for the Mets – something like that Cody Bellinger Mold – would definitely make sense for both sides. New York would retain the NL home run leader dating back to Alonso’s big league debut and do so without having to commit long-term to a 30-year-old first baseman who offers minimal defensive/baserunning value . Pairing of Alonso and Juan Soto at the heart of the Mets order would be impressive.

For Alonso, he would secure multiple seasons at an annual price that is probably higher than anything he would be able to get on a longer contract. Bellinger’s $80 million contract guaranteed him $60 million in the first two seasons of the three-year term if he forwent the first opt-out (which he did). An identical construct for Alonso would mean that, including the $20.5 million he earned in his final arbitration season, he would earn $53 million in 2024-25 or $80.5 million in 2024-26. dollars could have. If the goal is to bring down the $158 million he turned down in 2023 (which in turn would have covered the 2024-2030 season), he would be well on his way.

Furthermore, Alonso would have the opportunity to improve on his poor record in 2024, which has certainly curbed interest. The slugger didn’t have a bad season; His .240/.329/.459 slash was 22% better than league average as measured by wRC+. His 34 home runs were a clear plus. But Alonso’s last two seasons weren’t as dominant as he was from 2019 to 2022, when he hit a combined .261/.349/.535 (37% better than average).

A result in 2025 more in line with this form would potentially set Alonso up for a much higher salary – following a premium salary in 2025. He would also have the advantage of re-entering the open market without a qualifying offer The associated draft pick compensation hung over his head. Players can only receive one QO in their career, and Alonso declined a QO from the Mets back in November.