Crimson Tide still needs help

Heading into Week 14, the Alabama Crimson Tide faced a tough battle against the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl. But in the back of her mind, her College Football Playoff aspirations had to be there.

With a win against Auburn, the Tide may need some more luck to make the playoffs.

Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?

Let’s just assume that Alabama wins the Iron Bowl against Auburn. That’s why you’d be here, that’s what you’re thinking, and that’s what you’re wondering: Will Alabama make the playoffs with a win?

Let’s break this down in more detail with the Week 14 results and some predictions using the CFN College Football Playoff Predictor.

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And with this playoff predictor, the Crimson Tide have a 24.26% chance of making the playoffs with a win over Auburn. The roadmap is clear and starts with a win against Auburn.

After that, however, Alabama will have to have some luck to get into the playoffs.

How can Alabama make the playoffs?

To understand that, you have to look at the teams surrounding the Tide — and look even further beyond Alabama’s current ranking of No. 13. That’s because all of the Big 12 teams are currently behind Alabama, but one of them will take the Big 12 has secured a playoff spot by winning the conference.

That means Alabama probably needs to be at least No. 11 to feel safe, but if Boise State were to lose, they would have to finish at No. 10 or higher. So let’s understand all these scenarios.

The best way for Alabama to get into the playoffs is with a win against Auburn. Once this is done, they can ask the teams around them for help.

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No. 12 Clemson lost, but they lost to a three-loss SEC team in South Carolina. That likely means SC will overtake Alabama and take (at least) the No. 12 seed that Clemson had.

From there, as mentioned, Alabama would need to move up at least two spots to feel comfortable. Even if Ohio State loses, it’s unlikely they’ll fall behind Indiana, which is currently ranked 10th. Let’s go team by team to figure it all out.

• No. 4 Penn State – in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon
• No. 5 Notre Dame – overall with win over USC
• No. 6 Miami – beat Syracuse in the ACC Championship Game
• No. 7 Georgia – in the ACC Championship Game after defeating Georgia Tech
• No. 8 Tennessee – overall after defeating Vanderbilt
• No. 9 SMU – in the ACC Championship Game after defeating Cal
• No. 10 Indiana – overall with win over Purdue
• No. 11 Boise State – as the highest-ranked G5 champion (or UNLV would take that spot)
• No. 12 Clemson – eliminated, likely replaced by South Carolina
• No. 14 Ole Miss – likely eliminated despite beating Mississippi State
• #15 South Carolina – see above, likely move to #12
• No. 16 Arizona State – in the Big 12 Championship Game against Iowa State or BYU or Colorado

And we don’t have to go any further.

Currently, Notre Dame is winning against USC, but Miami is tied with Syracuse. An Irish loss would also move ‘Bama up one spot.

Alabama’s best chance is for SMU to lose to Miami in the ACC Championship Game to move up at least one spot, and then maybe get some luck.

In this scenario, Miami would lose and miss the ACC Championship Game. That would put Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and likely eliminate Miami from playoff contention entirely.

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Clemson would be favored over SMU and would certainly only field one ACC team.

In this case, Alabama moves up two spots and it would likely still come down to where the committee ranks South Carolina and the loser of the SEC Championship Game if the SEC’s loser is Georgia.

Win against Auburn and hope for some chaos, Bama fans. You’ll need it.

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