Croatia’s populist and anti-EU president is facing a second term in office? – DW – December 29, 2024

Zoran Milanovic’s supporters recently put on a fiery performance at a campaign rally on Sunday morning at the Zagreb Culture Factory. The incumbent president and candidate for re-election on December 29th appeared more combative than ever before to the crowd in the packed concert hall.

After being greeted with thunderous applause, Milanovic sharply attacked his nemesis, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, and his government, accusing him of corruption and nepotism, not to mention being a “poodle” and “puppet of Brussels” at the expense of the people interests of Croatia.

The incumbent only had insults for the other presidential candidates, but refrained from elaborating because “an eagle doesn’t hunt flies.”

Milanovic’s self-confidence is justified: for weeks he has been at the top in all polls in the race for a second five-year mandate in the predominantly ceremonial role; approval of around 39% was recently forecast.

Support for his closest rival Dragan Primorac, the candidate of the ruling national-conservative Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), was 23%. They were followed by Ivana Kekin from the left-green party “Mozemo!”. (“We can!”) and the independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudic with around 9% each.

“A kind of Trumpism”

“Milanovic has no program at all,” Zagreb political scientist Zarko Puhovski told DW. “He is the program.” Milanovic is practicing “a kind of Trumpism,” he added.

“He presents himself as a man with clear words and clear ideas who doesn’t mince his words. That’s what people like: strong men. We also see this in Hungary and the USA.”

Milanovic doesn’t care about laws or state institutions, said Puhovski. “He has violated the constitution several times, refuses to cooperate with the government and parliament and ignores the decisions of the Constitutional Court, whose judges he described as annoying stable flies and gangsters.”

“And in the last general election (in April 2024 – Editor’s note) he unconstitutionally stood as the top candidate of his Social Democratic Party without resigning from his office as Federal President, as required by the Constitutional Court.”

Milanovic is neither clearly left nor right

Milanovic, long-time leader of the progressive Social Democratic Party and head of government from 2011 to 2016, is neither clearly left nor right. Instead, he styles himself as a fearless fighter against the corruption and cronyism of the ruling HDZ, while disregarding the central institutions of the Croatian state.

On the one hand, Milanovic emphasized Croatia’s role in the Western world and the EU. On the other hand, however, he has insisted that Croatia’s interests should always come first.

He has highlighted the origins of Croatian statehood in the anti-fascist struggle of Yugoslav partisans during World War II, but awards medals to soldiers who fought for independence from Yugoslavia in the 1990s under a Croatian Ustasha fascist slogan.

Appealing to both sides

This ambiguity seems to find support among Croats belonging to different political camps.

While the HDZ candidate Primorac is perceived as the mouthpiece of his political patron, the chairman of the ruling party and Prime Minister Plenkovic, the left sees Milanovic as the only serious challenger to the powerful Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the right appreciates his commitment to national interests and his criticism of the EU.

But Milanovic has little influence on Croatia’s domestic politics, where parliament and the government are in charge. As ceremonial head of state, he only has a say in some intelligence matters, some aspects of foreign policy and, as commander in chief of the army, in defense matters.

But the fact that the president is directly elected by the people gives the office a special legitimacy.

Staying out of Russia’s war against Ukraine

In terms of foreign policy, Milanovic wants to keep Croatia out of Russia’s war against Ukraine. “This is not our war,” he said, using an old saying: “When elephants fight, mice should stand aside.” Furthermore, he said at an event in early 2023 that Russia “cannot be defeated by conventional means.”

While Milanovic does not question Croatia’s NATO membership, he rejects the possible active use of Croatian soldiers in the conflict, including as part of a possible peacekeeping mission.

His opponent Primorac tried to discredit him as “Putin’s man” and “paid by the Russians”. However, since Primorac was unable to substantiate these claims, they had little impact.

“We have to take care of ourselves”

Milanovic also insisted on maintaining independence from the EU, in contrast to Prime Minister Plenkovic, who is seen as a dutiful supporter of Brussels politics.

“We have to take care of ourselves, our politics cannot always be that of a subordinate,” Milanovic said at the Kulturfabrik election campaign event in December. He has been calling for more funding from Brussels for a long time. It was “our money,” he said. “We are entitled to it.”

Milanovic has struck the same tone towards Croatia’s neighbors in the Western Balkans. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, where Croats are one of the three constituent peoples alongside Bosniaks and Serbs, he insists on strengthening Croatian rights. At least on this point there are hardly any differences to the policies of the current Croatian government.

Milanovic’s attitude towards Serbia is also not significantly different from Plenkovic’s, with one exception: he claims that Kosovo was “taken away” from Serbia in violation of international law – and Croatia was involved. In his view, this set a precedent that made Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea unsurprising.

Voters will have to weigh these differences when they go to the polls on December 29th. Since no candidate is expected to achieve an absolute majority in the first round, there will probably be a runoff between the two best-placed candidates in another two weeks.

This article was originally written in German.