Crude Oil Price Forecast: Approaching Key Levels Amid Intensifying Price Patterns

Two consolidation patterns

Both patterns, the small symmetrical triangle and the falling wedge, indicate that the price range for crude oil has narrowed recently. When this happens, there can typically be a strong move towards the breakout. However, for crude oil, a fall below the minor triangle boundary (at around 67.22 today) could keep oil prices within the confines of the wedge boundary.

This could dampen the initial downward volatility. Nevertheless, a decisive decline below the November 18 swing low of 66.86 suggests a bearish breakout of the minor triangle pattern. Then the previous swing low from September at 65.65 becomes the next lower target.

Breakthrough targets 65.65

The September swing low was the lowest traded price for crude oil since May 2023. It ended the initial breakdown from a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern triggered in early September. The recent consolidation is largely contained below the lower boundary of the large triangle. This is a bearish position, especially given the failed attempt to recover through the triangle range that occurred after the 65.65 swing low. Doesn’t matter,

Bull move up above 70.67

Regardless of the supporting bearish signs, there is a bullish wedge on the crude oil chart. A breakout to the upside would initially be triggered by a rally above the pattern’s upper purple boundary, while a more reliable signal would be indicated by a rally above the weekly high of 70.67. Also, keep an eye on the 50-day MA pivot as it is very close to the weekly high.

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