DC Winter Snowstorm: Timing How Much to Expect Through Monday

WASHINGTON – A storm system is expected to move across the Plains and Midwest this weekend, potentially bringing the worst snowfall in years.

A weather model shows the threat of snow showers and snow squalls in the D.C. area Friday afternoon.

What awaits you on Friday?

A strong cold front will move across the region during the afternoon on Friday. This is the leading edge of significantly colder air that will move into the DC area before the weekend. High temperatures will range from early January in the lower to mid 40s to high temperatures only in the lower to mid 30s through the weekend. Overnight low temperatures will also drop, with overnight lows falling back into the teens and 20s on both Saturday and Sunday morning.

The weather model shows the risk of a light blanket of snow on Friday afternoon.

The big story of the weekend is the cold. The majority of the weekend will be dry, with clouds battling the sun from time to time and temperatures fighting to climb well above freezing each afternoon. The cold is key because it is what we call “preparing the ground for snow” by the end of the weekend. With ground temperatures cooling across the region over the weekend, this means that once the snow begins to fall, it should stick almost immediately, rather than losing some through the initial snowmelt. Snow could begin as early as Sunday night in the D.C. region.

Cold air will intensify on Friday as a powerful cold front sweeps across the region

What is a snow squall?

Models indicate a period of widespread snow showers and the possibility of snow squalls moving through the region. Sometimes referred to as “mini-blizzards”… A snow squall is a short but intense period of snowfall that can reduce visibility and result in the accumulation of several inches or more of snow in a very short period of time. They tend to move on as quickly as they started. However, they pose a danger to travelers as the roads can quickly become covered in snow when driving through, although they usually clear again quickly after passing through.

Most weather models show this to be a threat right now, although none of the weather models show large amounts of snow on the ground, most show the threat of rapid coverage of up to an inch or more across much of the DC area. While this is not expected to be a long-lasting impact event, it is important for people to be aware that these snow showers could be briefly heavy as they move across the D.C. region. However, most squalls only last about 20 to 30 minutes and end as quickly as they began. Cold and dry air behind the front should cause skies to clear quickly on Friday evening and temperatures to fall into the weekend.

The European Weather Model forecasts snowfall across the DC region early Monday morning.

When does snow start in DC?

Computer weather model forecasts vary on exactly when the snow will begin in the D.C. area, but the weather team is leaning toward a start Sunday evening, possibly sometime after 6 p.m. The exact time should be foreseeable in the coming days. The heaviest snow is expected to fall overnight and into the early hours of Monday.

The forecast calls for a cold but mostly dry weekend in DC, with snow starting to fall later Sunday evening

Will schools close on Monday?

Next week, most of the region is expected to return to school and work after the holiday season ends. However, assuming the forecast holds true, given the timing of this storm system, it is very likely that students in our area will extend their vacation by an additional day or two.

You can find the current school closures here.

Forecasts indicate the likelihood of a cold in the eastern United States is high through mid-January

How much snow is expected? Forecast for DC, Virginia, Maryland

Weather models have shown various solutions in recent days. Almost all of them have at least a few inches of snow in the D.C. area, although the numbers have been higher in some of the more reliable forecasts and some suggest there may be more than half a foot of snow in and around the immediate D.C. area.

While the numbers can and likely will change in the coming days, most areas in Maryland, DC and Northern Virginia should expect around 4 to 8 inches. Communities near Charlottesville and Richmond in southern Virginia could see 2 inches.

Some areas of West Virginia may see up to 12 inches, but we are still alert to the risk of a slight northward shift in the forecast.

We could see more mix than models show with a sneaky warm nose.

The upward boom is in the 6 to 10 inch range and the downward bust is in the 1 to 3 inch range for most of the region.

The highest totals will likely land somewhere north of I-70 and the PA Turnpike.

However, it is important that we monitor trends with the system over the next few days as some have suggested that mixed precipitation is possible, which would reduce some of the expected precipitation totals.

Early estimates show 4 to 8 inches of snow for much of the region, with a possible shift in totals northward.

Despite these high totals, there is no indication that this would meet blizzard criteria for the D.C. region as the storm is not rapidly intensifying and excessively strong winds are not expected with this system. We believe the risk of more than a foot of snow in DC is relatively low, even with this system.

When was the last time DC saw a snowstorm?

It has been three years since the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area was last hit by a storm that dumped over half a foot of snow. On January 3, 2022, a post-New Year’s snowstorm blanketed most of the D.C. area with 10 to 20 cm of snowfall, with over 30 cm of snow falling in parts of southern Maryland. The storm famously shut down I-95 in Virginia, stranding some drivers on the highway for over 24 hours.

The FOX 5 weather team has been closely monitoring the forecast development of the storm system moving into the D.C. area this weekend, in what may be our most significant snowfall since this system three years ago.

The FOX 5 weather team will continue to provide updates on the storm in the coming days and will continue to refine the timing and snow totals. By Saturday we should have a good idea of ​​what to expect in our region. Regardless of how much snow falls, confidence is high that a period of very cold air will move into the eastern half of the country behind this system. It could be our coldest time of the entire winter. It remains to be seen whether there will be further risks of snow during this cold spell. However, let’s focus on one system at a time.

Stay ahead of the winter weather on FOX Local with exclusive live updates ahead of this storm system every day at 7:30 p.m. Here’s how to watch FOX Local on your smart TV and on the go.