Does the SMU-Clemson result matter for Alabama football? Perhaps. Maybe not.

Let’s start with the simple, easy and clear.

If SMU beats Clemson in the ACC title game on Saturday, Alabama football will almost be in the College Football Playoff. This is the result that would be least likely to confuse in a field that looks reasonably clear.

But what if Clemson wins?

That’s a question currently in the discussion, and it arose Tuesday evening after the CFP Committee announced its second-to-last CFP rankings. Alabama was ranked 11th and would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. SMU is also there and is ranked 8th, but Clemson at 17th is not. However, the Tigers control their own destiny. If they win the ACC Championship, they will automatically clinch a spot in the CFP, regardless of where they are on Sunday.

The question is, what happens to SMU then?

Would it fall far enough to be eliminated from the playoffs?

CFP Chairman Warde Manuel opened the door to that possibility Tuesday night. He was asked if SMU could fall under Alabama with a loss to Clemson.

“Possibly yes,” Manuel said.

Talk about two words with significant weight.

SMU’s elimination due to the result in an extra game could have a significant impact on the future of the conference championships, but it would not be unprecedented. Teams that played the extra game lost and were previously eliminated. Look at Georgia a season ago.

But would the committee do it to a team in this new 12-team playoff format? The path seems to be there.

It starts with Manuel’s comments. He could have dismissed the idea that SMU could be eliminated from the playoffs, but he didn’t.

Alabama also fares well compared to SMU. The committee has a handful of arguments based on metrics it has used and could use again on Sunday.

Manuel pointed to Alabama’s wins against the CFP’s top 25 teams as a key reason the Crimson Tide was ranked ahead of No. 12 Miami on Tuesday. The Crimson Tide has a 3-1 record against ranked teams today. Miami doesn’t have a ranked win. Neither does SMU. The Mustangs are also 0-1 against ranked teams today.

The committee could also raise the strength of the schedule. Alabama is ranked 17th. SMU is No. 75. The strength of SMU’s schedule will improve when playing a ranked Clemson team, but probably not enough to make it a mess. That’s a lot of catching up to do in these statistics.

SMU has a slight lead in record strength. The Mustangs are ranked 9th and Alabama is ranked 10th, so that’s basically a mistake. But it is comparable.

SMU’s biggest advantage will be its direct balance sheet. Even with a loss, SMU would be 11-2 compared to Alabama’s 9-3 record. However, Miami’s better record than Alabama didn’t stop the committee from placing the Crimson Tide ahead of the Hurricanes.

Whether you agree with these points or not is unclear. The committee will justify its rankings, however it chooses to justify them. Sometimes it’s logical, sometimes not. Trying to figure out what logic the committee will use is an exercise in futility.

What is clear: Based on Manuel’s comments and similar data points the committee has previously used, there is reason to believe that Alabama can make the playoffs even with an SMU loss to Clemson.

Therefore, the outcome of the ACC title game may ultimately play no role in the Crimson Tide’s fate.

Despite it. Why was it left to the unpredictable committee? The Mustangs have the ability to make it easy: Beat Clemson and end the “Alabama or SMU” discussion, as both are still alive to play another day.