Experts -picks, best bets: Where is the value at UFC Fight Night and Pfl in the first round?

The former preliminary title challenger Josh Emmett in the spring weight will end a 15-month discharge if he will be on Saturday (9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+) in the UFC Fight Night on the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+the increasing candidate in Las Vegas) is ended.

Emmett, who has not fought since the UFC 296 in December 2023, produced one of the most devastating surfaces that they will ever see in his last Octagon appearance and defeated Bryce Mitchell in the first round by Knockout. Before this victory, Emmett had a duel strip. Murphy has not yet suffered a loss in his professional career and steps into the fight after winning seven fights in a row. He won each of his last three fights through a unanimous decision. Both fighters are not used by ESPN.

The PFL will organize its first event of 2025 on Thursday, as the world weights and feather weights will debut the new format for the doctoral tournaments of the doctorate.

In the main event, the former world weight champion competes against Andrey Koreshkov. Jackson will make his second appearance. He defeated Ray Cooper III. In an exhibition fight on Pfl Champions against Bellator Champions Card last year. Koreshkov is 1-1 in the plant. Most recently, he defeated Goiti Yamauchi through a unanimous decision during the regular 2024 season.

Andreas Hale spoke to the veteran MMA trainer and ESPN analyst Din Thomas in order to obtain his perspective on the UFC Hauptwärter. The ESPN competition Ian Parker adds insights and analyzes into the main event and other fascinating bets that it likes on the map, as well as its best bets for the Pflampfartkkarte on Thursday.

Note from the publisher: The answers were processed for brevity and clarity.

Springweight: Josh Emmett against Lerone Murphy

play

Josh Emmett enters the contender on Ko of the year

Josh Emmett sends Bryce Mitchell to the mat in round 1 of her fight.

Din Thomas, Veteran MMA trainer and ESPN analyst

How Emmett wins: Emmett has a power change. This was shown in his fights against Mitchell, Ricardo Lamas and Michael Johnson. He really made a number for these boys. However, a few things alerted me. The first is that he is 40 years old. He had some time to recover injuries, but his people told me that he felt better than ever before. Emmett’s team said he would compete with more physicality than in a long time, but it is difficult for me to believe that. Maybe he is trying to convince himself. In any case, he has to land this big blow because if he does it, it’s a game over.

How Murphy wins: Murphy sold me with his performance against Edson Barboza. He has great tools and knows when to use them. He moves well, changes attitude and understands how to get out of difficult situations. His speed and versatility should enable him to run around Emmett. He will fight smartly, but can be aggressive if necessary. Murphy can invest a clinic against Emmett if he provides all of his tools.

X factor: The size of the octagon. The smaller octagon on the UFC APEX prefers Emmett because it will limit Murphy’s movement. He may be able to integrate and force Murphy to exchange strokes, exactly what Emmett wants.

Forecast: Murphy to gain by decision.

Betting analysis

Opportunities exactly after publication. For the latest opportunities, visit the ESPN-Bet.

Parker: to win Emmett (+260). Emmett is a hard litmus test for everyone who tries to get to the top of the spring weight. Although he is a big outsider, I take Emmett here. Emmett has five-round experience and has a competition at the highest level. He also has a fantastic Takedown defense and devastating knockout force. Murphy has to exceed Emmett and surpass while avoiding it has been cut off over 25 minutes. That is a big question, especially after he was dropped in his last struggle by Dan Ige.

Parker’s best bets on the rest of the UFC card

play

JOANNERSON Brito is stunned by Andre Fili in the first round

Johanderson Brito ends Andre Fili in the first round with an incredible combination.

Springweight: Pat Sabatini against JOANNERSON Brito

The fight does not go over the distance. This should be a fun fight as long as it takes. For me, this fight only ends one of two options: either Sabatini gets the submission or Brito gets the knockout. And it is more likely that Brito will do it here. We saw Brito’s opponent shot for a lazy takedown attempt after the rocking and then submitted or switched off. I expect this to happen here if Sabatini can win in a scramble, he is a dangerous submission threat.

Women’s flying weight: Diana Belbita against Dione Barbosa

Barbosa to win in the distance. Although she lost a decision against Miranda Maverick in her second fight in the UFC, Barbosa still played well and showed that she belongs to the promotion. She is currently the biggest favorite on the menu, but is only preferred a little to win in the distance, and that is the result that I lean on. Two of Belbitas five losses have come through the submission, and when you consider that Barbosa has achieved three of her seven victories with the submission, we will probably see No. 4 here. This should be a shop window for barbosa.

Parkers Best Betting for Pfl first round: World Heritage weights & feather weights

Welterweight: Jason Jackson against Andrey Koreshkov

To win Jackson (-230). Koreshkov has proven to be a devastating striker with a fight towards the end. In order to deduct the surprise, he has to keep this fight from a distance and strike, but I don’t see that. Jackson can keep up Koreshkov on his feet, but the greatest inequality is grappling and wrestling where Jackson has the advantage. Look for Jackson to use his blow to close Koreshkov’s removal and finally bring the fight to the ground. I expect Jackson Koreshkov to exceed the fight for the most part of the fight and get victory.

Springweight: Jeremy Kennedy against Movlid Khaybulaev

Khaybulaev to win through submission or decision. Khaybulaev returns to the PFL, hoping to become a two -time champion. He is a hard matchup for Kennedy, the largest outsider on the menu because Khaybulaev is unbeaten and has not shown any weaknesses in his game. If Kennedy does not catch him with a flash -Knockout, this will be a dominant performance of Khaybulaev. Look for Khaybulaev to close the distance and to suffocate Kennedy for most of three rounds.

Springweight: Nathan Kelly against Tae Kyun Kim

To win Kelly (+105). After his winning streak came to a standstill with 11 thugs in his last fight, Kelly was able to bounce back with a win against Kim. Although Kelly is a small outsider and decreases a loss, it should be preferred in my opinion. Kelly fought a better competition, and when the fight hits the ground, Kelly is the better floor grapper.