Fantasy football free agent picks Week 16: Move if you miss Mahomes and Montgomery

The NFL is a “next man up” league. In a broader sense, this also applies to your fantasy football league. You assembled your team during the draft, but it’s the moves you take throughout the season – and now over the course of the postseason – that will ultimately determine whether you win that crown or are just ready to start planning for it to start the next season. As always, each week we’ll help you identify the players available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues whose value has improved and who you should add to your roster as starters or as smart stock for your bench.

For most leagues, the fantasy playoffs began in Week 15. Whether you’re chasing a championship or just trying to avoid a last-place penalty that could go viral, I’m here to help you.

We saw some great performances on Sunday that had fantasy managers either celebrating or cursing their luck. Davante Adams, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, Lamar Jackson and Brian Thomas Jr. all scored at least 32 fantasy points. On the other hand, two of the best running backs in fantasy, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, didn’t quite live up to expectations.

There were also some injuries that could have a negative impact on the future development of the fantasy teams. One is Patrick Mahomes who is currently listed as week-to-week due to an ankle injury. While Mahomes hasn’t been a fantasy juggernaut this season, averaging just 16.7 points per game, he has still started in 68.1% of leagues. His absence would definitely be a blow to the Kansas City Chiefs offense and their fantasy-relevant players.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions received some bad news on Monday. After suffering an MCL sprain on Sunday, David Montgomery will be out indefinitely – and possibly the remainder of the 2024 season. Sure, Jahmyr Gibbs will likely get the most play in Detroit’s backfield going forward, but he’s already pretty much everywhere on the roster.

Input Craig Reynolds (0.2% in the squad), who is now on the fantasy radar after this news. With Montgomery averaging 15.8 touchdowns per game, Reynolds could slot in behind Detroit’s offensive line, which ranks 13th in run-block win rate. The Lions, who currently have the fourth-most rushing attempts per game, rely heavily on their backs. It’s a good time to hide Reynolds.

We’ll go over a few more RB options below. However, for those looking to move on from Mahomes, let’s first talk about some key QB picks for the remainder of the season.

It’s the turn of the next QBs

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Aaron Rodgers’ Week 15 fantasy recap

Check out the fantasy numbers behind Aaron Rodgers’ standout day against the Jaguars.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (43.8% roster in ESPN leagues): Rodgers delivered a season-high 30.0 fantasy points on Sunday against a Jaguars defense that allowed the most QB fantasy points. Now he’ll get the Rams, Bills and Dolphins to finish the season – all favorable matchups. With receivers like Adams and Garrett Wilson combining for 57.4 points in Week 15, Rodgers is primed for a strong finish.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (39.4%): Stafford struggled with just 8.2 fantasy points against the 49ers last Thursday, but inclement weather was a big factor. Let’s not forget that he has Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as his top targets, which has helped the QB score 19+ fantasy points in two of his last three games. With upcoming games against the Jets, Cardinals and Seahawks – two of them at home – Stafford is in a great position for the remainder of the season.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (44.8%): Monday night was tough for Williams, who scored just 9.9 fantasy points against the Vikings – a significant drop from the 26.9 he scored against them in Week 12. The Bears had a league-high 58 sacks allowed, combined with a Vikings defensive front that ranked third in pass-rush win percentage and Williams’ tendency to hold on to the ball ended in disaster. The Bears face the Lions in Week 16 – a team Williams held to 26.1 points in Week 13. At the end of the season there will be proper duels against the Seahawks and Packers. While I’m not as optimistic about him as I was 24 hours ago, Williams is still a quarterback to consider in deeper formats.

It’s the turn of the next RBs

Sincere McCormick, Las Vegas Raiders (32.6%): McCormick entered Monday night’s game against the Falcons on an upward note, with an increase in snaps, carries and rushing yards since his debut in Week 12 after spending years on the practice squad and IR. Even though Alexander Mattison was back, head coach Antonio Pierce named McCormick the starter, and he played in 14 of the Raiders’ first 17 snaps against the Falcons, tallying seven carries and two receptions. Unfortunately, he suffered an ankle injury in the second quarter and was forced out after halftime. If the injury is minor, McCormick has the potential to win the league as he still has favorable games ahead of him against the Jaguars, Saints and Chargers.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (32.4%): Nick Chubb suffered a broken foot early in the third quarter against the Chiefs on Sunday and will now miss the rest of the season. Ford finished the game with nine touches, resulting in 18.4 fantasy points. Ford had taken care of the passing down work in the backfield while Chubb took care of the early downs. D’Onta Foreman, who was a healthy freshman, could fill the void for the remainder of the year. However, Ford has been productive whenever he gets regular touches, and the Browns would be wise to rely on him.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (8.0%): Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury in the second half against the Commanders on Sunday and did not return. In his absence, Miller finished with nine carries for 46 yards while Jamaal Williams saw no action. With the Saints at 5-9, there is no rush to get Kamara back on the field. This could lead to the rookie RB becoming the primary defender – and fantasy difference maker – for the rest of the season, especially given a favorable schedule against the Packers, Raiders and Buccaneers.

The next WRs are coming up

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (40.4%): Doubs finished Sunday night’s game with 19 fantasy points against the Seahawks, thanks to his two receiving touchdowns. He also leads all Packers pass catchers in routes per game, averaging 5.2 targets and 10.3 fantasy points this season. Looking ahead, the Packers have two favorable matchups – against the Saints and the Vikings, both of which are among the eight most generous defenses in terms of WR fantasy points allowed. It makes Doubs a great pickup.

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Moody: Add Jalen McMillan if he’s still available

Eric Moody encourages fantasy managers to take Jalen McMillan off the waiver wire after another big game in Week 15.

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.2%): McMillan had just 36.5 fantasy points in his first eight games this season. In the last two weeks, he has more than doubled that output with a total of 40.4 fantasy points. What’s interesting is that McMillan and Mike Evans ran the same number of routes during this period, with Evans only having a 16-13 edge in targets. Over the next three weeks, the Buccaneers face the Cowboys, Panthers and Saints. Dallas and New Orleans are both in the top 10 best matchups for wideouts to score fantasy points. The rookie is someone you should definitely add, especially in deeper leagues.

Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers (1.4%): Coker returned Sunday against the Cowboys after missing three weeks with a quadriceps injury. He caught a long touchdown and finished the game with six targets and 21.0 fantasy points. However, Adam Thielen finished with more targets and receptions. This was the first game in which both played together. However, with Xavier Legette dealing with a groin injury, Coker could see even more targets in the future. He has two favorable matchups coming up against the Cardinals and Buccaneers.

The next TE is coming up

Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (2.0%): Strange entered Sunday’s game against the Jets as the Jaguars’ clear TE starter since Evan Engram was out for the season with a shoulder injury. He finished the season with a season-high 12 targets and 18.3 fantasy points. This wasn’t a big surprise considering how well Strange played earlier this season when he filled in for Engram. He’s a solid option if you need a tight end, especially with upcoming matchups against the Raiders (who rank fourth in most TE fantasy points allowed), followed by the Titans in Week 17 and the Colts (who are in fifth place) in Week 18.