Fantasy Premier League: How to choose a captain for Gameweek 17 when you don’t have a clear choice?

Once again, there are no standout options for captaincy this week.

That means another difficult decision, but also an opportunity to capitalize if you get it right.

Here we look at the best destinations for Gameweek 17 based on player stats and their schedules.

We’ll also go over some of the best practices when it comes to your decision.

But first, here are the top options…

Match date: Ipswich (A)

With seven goals, Isak is the ninth top scorer in the Premier League this season. He has been in great form with three goals and two assists in the last three games against Liverpool (H), Brentford (A) and Leicester (H).

Newcastle have been inconsistent this season but have scored nine goals in their last three games and have a good game against Ipswich this week.

Only five teams have conceded more goals (28) than Kieran McKenna’s side, and they have the third-worst xGC (expected goals conceded: 32.7) in the division. They are one of the worst defenses in the league and Newcastle will be heavy favorites.

Isak celebrates his goal against Leicester (George Wood/Getty Images)

Isak is Newcastle’s talisman, so he is firmly in the starting XI and will also be the first penalty taker as a teammate Callum Wilson (£6.9m) is injured again.

According to bookmakers, he is also the second favorite to score (48 percent).

Fixtures: Everton (A)

Cole Palmer has scored 11 goals and seven assists so far and has recorded an xG (expected goals) of 9.8 and an xA (expected assists) of 4.1.

He runs the reins at Chelsea and will therefore always be involved in the majority of Chelsea’s goals.

Chelsea play against Everton this week. The Toffees have struggled this season, finishing 16th in the league. But despite their low position, their defense wasn’t too bad. They have the seventh best defensive record (with 21 goals conceded, the same as Bournemouth, Newcastle and Crystal Palace) and have an xGC of 20.1 (fifth best).

Palmer is almost a guarantee of goal involvement this season (Julian Finney/Getty Images)

On the other hand, Chelsea with Enzo Maresca were the best attacking team in the division. They have scored the most goals (37) and also have the best xG (34.2).

The London side must now be viewed as title contenders and I see Chelsea winning here with at least a couple of goals, with Palmer the most likely to either score or provide them with an assist. He has a 38 percent chance of scoring at any time.

Fixtures: Spurs (A)

On paper, Liverpool have a tough game, but Tottenham is a good game for the opposing attackers.

I think this game has the potential to get the highest score of the game week. Both teams have good attacks and Spurs don’t sit back against any team, which usually means they miss a lot of chances.

Liverpool were one of the best teams in the final third, scoring 31 goals (fourth most) with an xG of 30.6 (third best).

This looks set to be Mohamed Salah’s best season ever. He already has 13 goals and nine assists with an xG of 10.48 and an xA of 3.29. It follows that he also has the most FPL points (156), with 10 trips in double figures.

Salah will likely get chances against Spurs (Alex Livesey/Getty Images)

He was involved in 71 percent of Liverpool’s league goals (goal or assist), which is by far the highest in the league.

He has been their talisman for eight seasons in a row, but seems to be even more important this season.

He’s nailed down to start.

He’s in the penalty shootout.

He should get a lot of chances.

And the Egyptian has a 46 percent chance of scoring at any point in Gameweek 17, despite not being at home.

Alternate captains

The lack of an obvious first-choice candidate could be an opportunity to take a risk.

Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m) at home in Bournemouth is also a good option. Under Ruben Amorim, Manchester United’s new manager, he played as part of the front three and as one of the two No.10s, enjoying slightly more freedom and scoring twice in his last two.

The Portuguese has goals and assists, takes many set pieces and is the first choice penalty taker. This week there was a big difference from the usual suspects.

Fernandes could be chasing points after United’s upturn in form (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Bukayo Saka (£10.6m) There will be a big difference for the captain this week as he has now failed to score in his last three games. However, he is still one of the best options in the game and although Crystal Palace (A) may not be the easiest match, Arsenal have the firepower to overtake Oliver Glasner’s side.

He is Arsenal’s main man, is a regular starter, has set pieces and penalties and I can imagine him having very little captaincy role this week.

How to choose

When it comes to the captaincy in weeks like these, I always look at the best game first, once I’ve narrowed my options down to two or three.

We have seen time and time again that fixtures matter and are probably the most important factor when it comes to captaincy.

Then I look at the individual’s underlying numbers and sometimes I suggest a player who has a better game. For example, if Bruno plays against Southampton (H) and Salah plays against Everton (H), you would still bet on Salah even though Sean Dyche’s team has a far better defense than Southampton. That’s because the Egyptian’s xG is more than double that of Bruno’s – he’s clearly the better FPL option.

We also need to consider midfielders versus strikers. The former receive an extra point for a goal and a goal conceded, so they generally require fewer attacking putbacks to score the same number of points. I always prefer the midfielder when a striker is tight.

A deciding factor between two players would be whether they go for set pieces or penalties, and then their chances of scoring a potential goal. I would never base my decision on these factors alone, but would only consider them in a narrow tiebreaker.

It is convenient to display all the facts in table format to make your decision easier. (Note: xI is the expected target participation: xA + xG.)

Looking at the table, Salah has the highest xG, plays the second worst defense, has the second highest scoring chances of all time and is in the penalty shootout.

So for me the best captaincy option this week is the Liverpool star.

Go deeper

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(Top photo: Isak by George Wood via Getty Images)