Following winter storm surge, Colorado’s snowpack could flatten during a week-long dry spell

Colorado’s snowpack continues to exceed that of past years, with the recent increase attributed to a powerful series of winter storms that dumped several feet of new snow across the high country.

Snowpack, also called snow-water equivalent, is a measure of how much liquid water is contained in the state’s snowfields. How much snowpack inundates Colorado this winter will have a big impact on drought conditions, river flow and the health of the state’s reservoirs.

Statewide snowpack reached 134% of the 30-year average on Friday, Nov. 29, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. It is the highest value for this time of year in the last 10 years.

River basins with the highest snowpack are concentrated in the southern half of the state, with snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin – which stretches north from Colorado Springs to the New Mexico border – at nearly 200% of normal on Friday.

The Colorado Headwaters River drainage basin in the Central Mountains was at 134%, while the Yampa-White-Little Snake River drainage basin – which includes Steamboat Springs – was at 103%. Snow cover typically peaks in April, but dates vary by catchment area.

“We’re off to a great start, especially with the storm that just came through,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Zach Hiris. “We have enough time to build up the snowpack; It just depends on what the second half of winter looks like when it comes to how we finish the season.”

Back-to-back storms late last week and into Wednesday helped ski resorts open up acres of new terrainwith Copper Mountain becoming the first resort in Colorado to record 100 inches of snowfall this season.

The powder rush will be taking a break, however, and no new snow is in sight for at least the next week.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6- to 10-day forecast shows an increased chance of below-normal precipitation in the state’s mountains. The monthly outlook In December, the chance of above or below normal precipitation is equal, but the chance of above normal temperatures is slightly increased.

“The forecast is grim in terms of much-needed precipitation,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Koopmeiners. “There’s a slow warming trend and it’s just bone dry.”

Forecasts show the next best chance of snow for the state’s mountains may not be until the second week of December, with temperatures potentially milder and reaching above normal, although daily highs in mountain valleys will still only be around 30°C.

OpenSnow.com founding meteorologist Joel Gratz, in a blog post Fridaypredicted that the state’s rapidly rising snowpack line will level off and be about normal during that time.

“Our snowpack will be fine as the sun will be low and temperatures will be cool,” Gratz wrote.

The next chance of snowfall could be Dec. 9 or 10, although he said the chance is currently only between 20 and 30%. Confidence is growing that a storm will strike at the end of this week, around December 13th or 14th.

Forecasts “show a change in the overall storm track, with colder air and storm energy beginning to spread into the Rocky Mountains and possibly back to the West Coast,” he wrote. “Given this trend in the models, I’m relatively optimistic that we can talk about more snow starting in mid-December, although a two-week forecast is only useful for identifying trends and not for predicting the weather on specific days.”