For Republicans, tariffs pose a risk like no other

The time after a presidential election can feel like a moment of clarity. The results are finally in.

In the past two decades, the time after the election has not offered any clarity about the future of American politics. The winning party is repeatedly convincing that it has won a mandate or even a generation advantage. The shock losers retire to the internal debate. And then only a few months later it becomes clear that the next phase of American politics will not be what the winners presented.

This week, the next two years of American politics, merged and it does not look like a Maga or a Republican “Golden Age”. The elections for Special House in Florida and the elections of the Supreme Court in Wisconsin confirmed that democratic voters were not amazed in the elections last November. It is even more important that the comprehensive tariffs of President Trump – and the subsequent economic downturn – caused enormous political risks for republicans.

In a significant note, the elections on Tuesday were not important: they do not suggest that the Democrats solved the problems they cost the last elections. Instead, they mainly reflect the advantage of the party among the most informed, educated and civic voters. This advantage has enabled the Democrats to exceed low revolutions during the entire Trump era in elections, even when he made enormous profits among the dissatisfied and unhappy boys, workers’ and non-white voters who only appear in presidential elections.

Nevertheless, the Democrats do not have to be confronted with many of these dissatisfied and non -associated voters by 2028. The results last Tuesday offer a plausible preview of the next few years of elections: large democratic victories, also in the intermediate elections next year.

Nobody may have been having to be guarded in pink, and the Democrats of the Congress “played dead”, but the democratic special elections looks as great as in 2017 and 2018 before the so -called Blue Wave spoke control of the house.

Perhaps this should not be a surprise: it is what Mr. Trump happened for the last time. But it was not what triumphant republicans or desperate democrats had in mind after Mr. Trump’s victory when there was apparently no “resistance” towards Mr. Trump and the “vibes” seemed to have a broad cultural change to the right.

However, the tariffs announced a political problem with a completely different size for Mr. Trump and his party on Wednesday. No party or politician is proof of recession. In the past, even really dominant political parties have suffered enormous political defeats with great economic skills.

In any of these cases, with the notorious Smoot Hewley tariff, the President is blamed for the downturn as naturally as it is today. And whatever it felt of the choice, the Republican party is not even politically dominant.

If at all, Mr. Trump and the Republicans could be particularly vulnerable today, since so much of his political strength is built on the economy. Throughout his time as a politician, he usually received his best reviews for dealing with economic questions. He benefited from his reputation as a successful businessman and in his first term from an effective economic administration. He won the last choice despite enormous personal liabilities, not least because the voters were frustrated about high prices and economic upheavals that followed at the end of the pandemic.

In the national surveys of the New York Times/Siena College last autumn, more than 40 percent of the voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2024 did not state that the economy or inflation was the most important topic for its voice.

Before the tariffs this week, Mr. Trump had wasted his honeymoon after the election. His approval assessment had decreased to less than 50 percent, where she was faced with the election. His early threats to increase tariffs, including partners such as Canada, Mexico and Europe, probably played an important role in reducing his support. In a reversal of the usual pattern, the recent surveys had shown that Mr. Trump’s ratings were even worse for the economy than his general approval assessment. There were other signs that his actions had called for an early political tribute: the trust of consumers fell, the expectations of inflation rose and polls showed that the tariffs themselves were generally unpopular.

This fades compared to the tariffs that Mr. Trump issued on Wednesday. It is of course too early to assess the full economic effect and thus the political consequences. It can even be too early to know the ultimate Trump tariff policy. For the same reason, many will give politics from Mr. Trump’s supporters of politics. His approval rate could not overnight.

However, if the tariffs cause a recession and considerable price increases, as many economic analysts expect, a falling approval assessment could only be the beginning of its problems. While Mr. Trump may not run for re-election (regardless of the third dreams), many Republicans will be-and many of them weren’t completely on board. Laws have already supported half a dozen republican senators to contain the president’s authority to raise tariffs. This is far from enough to overcome a veto of the President, but it is an unusual level of republican opposition to Mr. Trump, and the time for building the opposition is far over.

If the economic fallout is already bad enough, the dissatisfaction with the Trump government with the long -standing democratic voter participation advantage in 2026 could achieve apparently safe republican states – think of Kansas, Iowa and Texas – plausibly competitive, perhaps even together with the control of the Senate. The continued support of the congress republicans by Mr. Trump – whether on tariffs or his other excesses – could be in danger.

At the moment, all of these potentially extraordinary developments in the distant future are. You are not necessarily likely either. But since Mr. Trump’s second term takes shape, it seems to be increasingly clear that the “golden age”, which is enlarged by the “Vibes” after the election, is even less likely.