Free agents that make sense for the Phillies 3.0

Heading into the offseason, we broke down two groups of free agents that make some sense for the Phillies. Now, with the winter meetings starting next week and virtually all of the top free agents still on the board, we’ll get back to presenting some possible targets. Today we’ll focus on two starting outfielders and a late-inning reliever, as it’s widely expected that the Phillies will add at least one of each this offseason

Anthony Santander, OF

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Santander made his first career All-Star Game for the Orioles in 2024, when he posted the highest OPS of his career (.814) outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The new dimensions of left field at Camden Yards didn’t bother him much, as the switch-hitting Santander hit a career-best 44 home runs and scored a career-high 102 runs. His .506 SLG was good for 15th in all of baseball, ahead of Kyle Schwarber (.485) and three spots behind Bryce Harper (.525).

The downside to Santander is that it doesn’t offer average or percentage base values. He hit .235 in 2024, eleven points below his career average of .246. His OBP of .308 was right in line with his career mark of .307. Santander isn’t a particularly strong defender either, having significantly underperformed in right field in 2024 with -7 DRS and -2 OAA.

But despite Santander’s low average and OBP, he didn’t hit at a higher rate. His 19.4 K% was slightly above league average, while his 9.4 BB% was essentially league average. Santander’s strikeout rate in 2024 was a solid improvement over his 23.2% in 2023, which was his career high for a full season. Santander was in the hunt at pace, however, as his 35.1% mark was the 16th highest among qualified hitters, one spot above Trea Turner (34.3%).

Santander. The man, who just turned 30 in October, is expected to receive a contract worth around four to five years worth $80 to $100 million, according to Fangraphs.

Teoscar Hernández, OF

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Hernández remained on the free-agent market last year before signing a one-year, $23.5 million contract with the Dodgers in January. His gamble to recalibrate his market has paid off, as Hernández will enter free agency after a season in which he hit a career-high .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs and will be named an All-Star for the second time by winning the Home Run Derby as part of the celebrations. He also came up big for the Dodgers in the World Series, going 7-20 (.350) with a home run and 4 RBIs in the five-game series.

The now 32-year-old’s biggest weakness, however, is his tendency to take action. Hernández has never had a strikeout rate lower than 25% in his career and is typically among the league’s leaders in punchouts. His 188 Ks this season were the fourth-most in baseball, just behind Kyle Schwarber’s 197.

With a rate of 28.7%, which is about league average, Hernández doesn’t chase at high speed, but rather just sniffs around on fields inside the zone. In 2024, he hit just 78.7% of the throws he made inside the zone, the seventh-lowest percentage among qualified hitters. Hernández swung and missed at a rate of 34% more than all but five qualified hitters in 2024. But when he actually made contact, he crushed the ball with a run and powerful hits that were among baseball’s best.

He’s also not a strong defender, as Hernández was one of the league’s worst defenders in the World Series despite his impressive throwing from the outfield. His -11 outs above average was the third-worst among all outfielders, just ahead of Nick Castellanos at -8.

In his second attempt to hit the open market, Hernández is expected to receive a three-year deal worth around $75 million this offseason. He and Santander are the best non-Juan Soto outfielders on the open market, so both could end up receiving more money and years than currently projected.

Clay Holmes, R.P

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Holmes remains with the players from teams that appeared in the World Series and enters free agency as one of the top backup players, although he lost his job as a closer at the end of the season. The right-hander appeared in 67 games, pitching to a 3.14 ERA and collecting 30 saves for the Yankees. Holmes had a 2.67 ERA through August before suffering a nightmare in September in which he allowed 6 runs in 9 innings, which led to his relegation from the bottom of the postseason.

Holmes features a turbo sinker with an average speed of 96.6 MPH. Holmes had the second-best groundball rate of all qualified relievers at 65%. Additionally, he has a healthy strikeout rate of 25.1% and a whiff percentage of 30.2%. Holmes is among the backup players the Phillies have targeted in the past, with speedy sinkers like Jose Alvarado, Gregory Soto and Yunior Marte. So much so that Matt Gelb of the Athletic has already said to keep an eye on Holmes this offseason.

Holmes’ biggest downside is that he allows a large number of baserunners and has a WHIP of 1.30. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters, as his 8.1% walk rate was middle of the pack, but he does allow a lot of hits due to his nature as a groundball pitcher. That combined with his good, not exceptional, strikeout rate has gotten him into trouble, like last September when Holmes walked 6 batters and allowed 9 hits in 12 appearances.

Holmes lost his closer job before the postseason and endured an October of ups and downs. He pitched five scoreless innings in the ALDS against Kansas City, but then allowed three runs in 2.2 IP in the ALCS against Cleveland, including a walk-off home run in Game 3. But Holmes bounced back in the World Series with five scoreless appearances during only one hit and two walks are allowed.

The 31-year-old is one of the hardest cases to predict on the open market. He could receive between two and four years and between $10 and $15 million per season.