Gross domestic product, 4th quarter and year 2024 (preliminary estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) In the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November and December), according to the foresight published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a year rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the third quarter, real GDP rose by 3.1 percent.

The increase in Real GDP In the fourth quarter, primarily an increasing increase in consumer expenditure and state expenditure were reflected, some of which were compensated for by a decline in investments. Imports that are a subtraction when calculating GDP decreased. You can find more information in the following “technical notes”.

Compared to the third quarter the delay in Real GDP In the fourth quarter, there were mainly reflecting in investments and exports. Imports rejected.

The Course index for gross domestic purchases In the fourth quarter, 2.2 percent rose in the third quarter compared to an increase of 1.9 percent. The Price index for personal consumption expenses (PCE) increased by 2.3 percent compared to an increase of 1.5 percent. With the exception of food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased by 2.5 percent compared to an increase of 2.2 percent.

GDP for 2024

Real GDP rose by 2.8 percent in 2024 (from 2023 from 2023), compared to an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected the increase in consumer expenses, investments, government expenditure and exports. Imports rose.

The Course index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.3 percent in 2024 compared to an increase of 3.3 percent in 2023. PCE price index increased by 2.5 percent compared to an increase of 3.8 percent. With the exception of food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased by 2.8 percent compared to an increase of 4.1 percent.

Next publication: February 27, 2025, at 8:30 a.m.
Gross domestic product, 4th quarter and year 2024 (second estimate)

Technical notes

Sources of change for the real GDP

The real GDP rose with an annual rate of 2.3 percent (0.6 percent with a quarterly rate¹), primarily the increase in consumer and state expenditure. Imports that are a subtraction when calculating GDP decreased.

• The increase in consumer expenses reflected both services and goods. The leading contribution to increasing health care was within services. Within goods were the leading participants for the increase in leisure goods and vehicles as well as motor vehicles and parts.
  • Within the healthcare system, hospital and nursing home services (especially hospital services) and outpatient services, mainly on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of current employment statistics (CES) employment, income and hourly data.
  • The increase in leisure goods and vehicles was led by information processing devices based on the monthly survey data of the Census Bureau.
  • The increase in motor vehicles and parts was led by new light trucks, which are mainly based on the sales data of Station Intelligence.
• The increase in state expenditure reflected the increase in state and local as well as the federal government.
  • Within the state and local government expenditure, the increase was cited by the compensation of the employees, which mainly based on employment data from the BLS CES.
  • Within the Federal Government’s expenditure, the increase in the consumption expenditure for defense consumption was primarily based on the monthly data to explain the Ministry of Finance.

Further information on the source data and BEA assumptions on which the fourth quarter is based can be found in the most important source data and assumptions table.

Effects of the hurricane Milton on the fourth quarter of 2024 estimates

Hurricane Milton landed on October 9, 2024 as a hurricane in category 3 south of Tampa Bay, Florida, and caused damage caused by strong winds, including considerable tornado activities and extensive floods in the interior.

This disaster disturbed the usual consumer and business activities and led to the emergency services and the renovation. The answers to this catastrophe are included in the source data used by BEA, but do not identify separately to create the GDP estimates. As a result, it is not possible to estimate the general effects of hurricane Milton on GDP of the fourth quarter. The destruction of fixed assets, such as B. residential and non-apartment structures does not affect GDP or personal income directly. BEA estimates of the loss of disaster are presented in Nipa Table 5.1, “savings and investment”. Preliminary estimates by BEA show that Hurricane Milton for loss of $ 27.0 billion in private property ($ 108.0 billion for an annual interest rate) and a state and local state and local facilities (12.0 billion US -Dollar led to an annual sentence).

Further information can be found under “How are the production and income measures in the national accounts affected by a catastrophe?” And “How are the fixed assets (FAAS) and the consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) affected by disasters?”

1. Percentage changes in the quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual prices unless otherwise stated. You can find more information in the FAQ. Why do Bea publish percentage changes to the quarterly series at annual prices?