How can Buffalo still make it to the MAC Championship game?

The Buffalo Bulls played their final regular season game of the 2024 season on Tuesday night of Week 14. However, their luck in the postseason depended on three teams on Friday and possibly two more teams on Saturday before moving on to a bowl game.

How Buffalo can still make it to the MAC Championship Game is a messy performance that could very well happen.

Buffalo can still win the MAC Championship

It’s no easy task, but the Bulls are still technically alive in the MAC Championship Game. You’d have to have some luck to go astray, but crazier things have happened.

To make it easier to understand, here are the results Buffalo would need to achieve to reach the MAC title:

• Ohio loses to Ball State on Friday
• Miami beats Bowling Green on Friday
• Eastern Michigan beats Western Michigan on Saturday
• Northern Illinois beats Central Michigan on Saturday

In summary, Ohio and Bowling Green have to lose. This then triggers the tiebreaker scenario between Ohio, Bowling Green and Buffalo. In this tiebreaker scenario, it would advance to tiebreaker No. 4, and Buffalo would have to lose to CMU and win to EMU to beat Bowling Green in the tiebreaker.

Now let’s explain why they would need additional results on Saturday if the two games on Friday were to fail.

In the only scenario that puts Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, Ohio would have just lost to Ball State while Bowling Green clinches its spot. That means we’re looking for one of the three remaining tied teams: Miami, Ohio and Buffalo.

The first four tiebreakers separate only Ohio from the mix, so the MAC’s fifth tiebreaker rule then determines the outcome based on the combined winning percentage of each BGSU and Buffalo’s conference opponent in MAC play.

In this scenario, EMU is Buffalo’s only opponent, while CMU is Bowling Green’s only opponent. Entering Week 14, Bowling Green’s winning percentage is one game higher than Buffalo’s, and therefore a two-game trade would be required to get Buffalo into play.

So Central Michigan has to lose and Eastern Michigan has to win.

It’s absolutely a long shot, but for Buffalo fans, it’s possible.

They are currently looking for Ball to beat Ohio State and Bowling Green and win against Miami. Then your focus shifts to Saturday.

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