How much could Paul Skenes’ MLB debut patch card be worth?

Paul Skenes’ MLB Debut Patch rookie card, the card everyone expects to be pulled, could come out any day. Shredders tear through thousands of packages every day, and collectors (flippers?) buy boxes in droves in hopes of picking up the big box.

But how much is the card potentially worth?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have offered two season tickets behind home plate for 30 years. How much does this cost in dollars? To sit directly behind home plate, you would sit in Section 17 at PNC Park. Based on Ticketmaster pricing, a seat in Section 17, Row G typically costs $351. Two seats would cost $702 per game.

Over 30 years, if prices remain the same, that’s a total of $1.7 million. However, Pirates season ticket holders get a 50% discount, so one could argue that it’s actually worth $850,000 spread over 30 years before inflation and team-based price adjustments.

You could also look at other highly sought-after rookie cards and see what they’ve chosen to do. The biggest buyer of last year’s MLB debut cards was Anthony Volpe, whose card was recently sold Dave and Adams for $150,000 as part of an eight-month award.

Some people may forget how big Volpe’s potential was when he earned a starting spot for the Yankees in 2023. However, given Skenes’ debut and exciting 2024 season, it’s clear that $150,000 is merely a very low floor for the value of his card.

You could also look at one of the most anticipated newcomers from another sport – Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama’s 2022 Bowman U Superfractor in his French team’s jersey, which he signed and inscribed, sold at Goldin Auctions for $67,000. The Superfractor is considered a pre-NBA card.

At the time, Ken Goldin, CEO of Goldin Auctions, said if it had been an NBA card with a Spurs logo, it could have sold for 5 to 15 times more than $67,000. With that estimate, such a hypothetical card would have sold for between $335,000 and about $1 million.

But basketball is different than baseball. Basketball attracts a larger global audience. While baseball has grown internationally, particularly in Asia, it is nowhere near as popular as basketball in Europe, China or Australia.

Therefore, the global market for a baseball card isn’t as big as it is for basketball, meaning the Skenes Debut Patch Card most likely won’t cost anywhere near $1 million. But even crazier things have happened.

It’s an interesting place for a pitcher. Of the 20 best-selling baseball jerseys last season, only one was of a pitcher, Clayton Kershaw. According to MLBShop.com, Kershaw had the 19th most popular jersey in 2024. This year’s highest selling price for one of his cards was $16,000.

But the MLB Debut Patch cards are different. They have become the equivalent of the NBA’s logoman in terms of desirability. Except “Debut Patch” cards can only be created once for each player, as the patch is only worn on the player’s very first game.

It’s a novel concept that elevates the patch cards above a baseball player’s superfractor. The debut patch cards also made a nice connection with memorabilia from the game, with no confusion as to where the patch came from and when and where it was worn.

So what could Skenes’ debut patch be worth? We can’t say for sure, but consider this:

1. Set a reserve price of about $200,000 based on the Volpe sale.
2. The Pirates are offering to purchase season tickets worth approximately $850,000 over a 30-year period. The face value of the tickets is approximately $1.7 million (minus the 50% discount for season tickets).
3. A shaky comparison with a one-off Wembanyama Superfractor rookie between $335,000 and $1 million. Maybe somewhere in the middle?

Of course, anyone who draws it can choose to keep it. And when the time comes to change hands, who knows how much it will be worth?