How much does the CFP Selection Committee penalize losers of conference championship games?

There’s fear among this year’s College Football Playoff contenders that losing in a conference championship game could give them a worse result than if they didn’t play at all. However, in the CFP’s first 10 seasons, most of the declines by title losers from the penultimate ranking to the final top 25 were negligible – and rarely damaging.

Had the current format existed in the last decade, only three of the 25 teams that started championship weekend in the 12-team field and then lost their conference title games would have been eliminated from the playoffs entirely. All three entered the weekend ranked either No. 10 or No. 11, and two of those teams (TCU 2017 and Oregon 2021) lost in the conference championship by at least 24 points. The third place (Georgia Tech in 2014) narrowly lost but fell a crucial spot, from 11th to 12th.

As long as the CFP Selection Committee’s treatment of title games remains consistent, the current postseason structure appears to be more lenient to teams that lost title games than its predecessor. In the four-team CFP era, seven of the top four teams were eliminated from the playoffs after losses in the conference championship. The most recent was 2023 Georgia, which lost by three to Alabama in the SEC title game and fell from No. 1 to No. 6 and out of the four-team field.

Overall, the 47 teams that lost in the first decade of CFP power conference title games (the Big 12 did not host a championship game from 2014 to 2016) lost an average of two spots in the final CFP Top 25. Almost half of the losers (23) rose in the rankings, remained even or only fell one place. Only six fell five or more spots, and all but one of that group (Georgia was the outlier again in 2023) lost their conference championship games by at least 19 points.

While all eyes are on how far SMU could fall behind should it lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on Tuesday night, according to the rankings, in addition to the seeding implications for the losers of the Big Ten and SEC title games, let’s take a closer look on how much that matters The selection committee penalizes teams that suffer title game losses, in some cases 12 hours before the final rankings are announced.

When defeats in conference title games led to elimination from the top four

Of the seven teams eliminated from the four-team CFP after championship losses, five started the weekend ranked No. 4. The teams that lost by one point (2015 Iowa, 2017 Wisconsin, 2018 Georgia) only slipped one or two spots away. The other two (2019 Georgia, 2022 USC) lost by 27 and 23 points, respectively; Georgia fell one spot (from No. 4 to No. 5) and USC fell six spots (from No. 4 to No. 10). The performance of their opponents seemed to influence the declines after the losses: Georgia lost to LSU, which went on to win the national title, while USC lost to Utah, which suffered three losses.

Other top four teams eliminated from the CFP include Auburn in 2017 and Georgia in 2023. The Tigers entered championship weekend in 2017 as a No. 2 seed, but fell to the 2017 championship weekend after a 28-7 loss to then-No seventh place. 6 Georgia. The 2023 Bulldogs were the No. 1 seed but lost by three points to No. 8 Alabama. With three other power conferences undefeated (Michigan, Washington, Florida State) and a one-loss Big 12 champion (Texas) that had beaten Alabama (which itself had just one loss), it was a convoluted one and complicated final vote. Only the first CFP season in 2014 reached a similar level of intrigue and selection chaos.

Go deeper

Ding dong, Miami is dead, but does Ole Miss deserve the CFP rankings nod over Alabama?

Why losing teams haven’t lost ground

The committee shows noticeable trends in dealing with the 22 runners-up in the conference who stayed in their place or only fell one place. Twenty of these teams played against teams that were superior to them, and 15 faced opponents who were at least six places superior to them. Two were unranked at the start of the championship game (Purdue in 2022, Pittsburgh in 2018) and remained unranked afterward.

The two teams, which lost to weaker opponents but held their ground fairly well, prevailed until the end. In 2015, No. 4 Iowa was a three-point underdog to No. 5 Michigan State and the Spartans won 16-13. In 2022, No. 3 TCU was a point favorite against No. 10 Kansas State, but lost in overtime, 31-28. Iowa fell one spot to No. 5, while TCU remained at No. 3 and qualified for the four-team CFP.

One losing team actually improved one spot in the final CFP rankings: In 2016, Virginia Tech moved from No. 23 to No. 22 after losing by a touchdown to No. 3 Clemson in the ACC title game.

dividing lines

Can we find other trends in committee behavior that indicate how much of a decline to expect for a particular type of defeat? Take a closer look at the differences between teams that lost three or four places after a championship defeat.

Of the five teams that lost exactly four spots in the final rankings, all but one lost to either unranked opponents or lower-ranked opponents. Three of those games came within a touchdown, and two of them were losses by 24 points or more. Of the teams that only fell three spots, they all lost to teams with higher seeds. Only one of these three games had a final score of less than 20 points.

There was no noticeable trend among the eight teams that lost two places. Wisconsin fell into this category twice (2016, 2017), once as a favorite (despite two losses) and once as an underdog (despite an undefeated record), and both losses were by seven points or less. The other six title game defeats that warranted a two-place demotion had a margin of defeat of at least 17 points and each included three instances in which higher- and lower-ranked teams fell short.

Conference champions advanced an average of 1.3 spots, with two (Florida State 2023, Ohio State 2019) moving down one spot. Only twice have teams that won the conference title moved up four spots to qualify for the four-team CFP, and both came last year (Alabama, Texas).

Go deeper

Is Ohio State banned from hosting a playoff game? What we learned from Tuesday’s rankings

What to see this year

This time something different is at stake. In the Big Ten and SEC title games, all four contenders are in the top five and will likely receive two byes (for the winners) and two first-round home games (for the losers). In the Big 12, the winner is between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State; the other is going to the Alamo Bowl or another bowl game.

The ACC is the only power conference championship game with the possibility of upward or downward mobility affecting the CFP. No. 8 SMU, which faces No. 17 Clemson, is the only power conference team within the current 12-team bracket that could play its way out of this bracket. If Clemson wins, it will receive an automatic bid. If the Tigers lose, they won’t qualify.

However, there is one scenario that could be a concern for SMU based on precedent. In the nine power conference title games where a team finished at least four spots ahead of its opponent and lost in regulation, that team lost an average of 4.4 spots in the final standings. Higher-ranked teams that lost by at least three touchdowns fell an average of about five spots.

If past Top 25 rankings are to be believed, a 21-point loss to Clemson could cause the Mustangs to fall out of the group. But an SMU win would keep the CFP drama to a minimum and keep the fluctuating numbers in check.

(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)