How much of an upgrade will DJ Humphries really be for the Chiefs at left tackle?

The Kansas City Chiefs may be 11-1 this season, but they have had two major problems on offense that have caused their games to be much closer than most fans would be comfortable with. The first problem was a lack of reliable wide receivers after the position was depleted by injuries to Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Rashee Rice. The acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins and the impending return of Brown have solved the problem somewhat. However, the bigger issue lately has been the left tackle position.

Rookie Kingsley Suamataia started the season at left tackle, but he struggled to get started and was replaced by Wanya Morris after just a few games. Unfortunately, Morris hasn’t been faring much better, especially lately. There is speculation that Morris isn’t fully healthy, but at the end of the day, results are all that matter, and they weren’t nearly good enough. That’s why the Chiefs signed former Arizona Cardinal DJ Humphries.

Humphries is a former first-round draft pick of the Cardinals. He played for Arizona for nine seasons and made the Pro Bowl once in 2021. Humphries was always a good athlete for an offensive lineman and had a natural competitiveness. He turns 31 later this month and is recovering from a torn ACL suffered a little less than a year ago (Week 17 of the 2023 season). Had he not suffered that injury, he would either still be in Arizona or probably would have received a respectable multi-year offer from another team.

On Monday, Andy Reid wouldn’t commit to a left tackle in the starting lineup, but said the team will give Humphries more practice this week to see how he feels. At this point, it’s not a matter of if they’ll give him a chance to start, it’s a matter of when they feel he’s physically ready. That could be this week or it could be another week or two.

So what can Chiefs fans expect from DJ Humphries as he takes over the starting left guard position? Can we assume that he will be a clear upgrade over Suamataia/Morris?

To answer that, we need to set up some kind of bar for Suamataia and Morris. While Pro Football Focus’ grades aren’t perfect, they at least give you some numbers for comparison. Suamataia has an overall PFF grade of 36.7 and a pass blocking grade of 33.2. He doesn’t have enough snaps to officially qualify, but if he did, 36.7 would be dead last among 76 tackles and the pass blocking rating of 33.2 would be second to last. Morris is light better at 50.7 overall with a pass blocking grade of 54.0. That puts him 69th overall (not good) and 65th in pass blocking.

Essentially, PFF has both Suamataia and Morris as two of the worst tackles (both overall and in pass protection) in the NFL this season. Kansas City’s two left tackles have combined to allow 8 sacks, 12 quarterback hits and 46 total pressures in 522 pass-blocking snaps. That’s pressure on about 8.8% of passes. That number isn’t much different from last season, when the combination of Morris and starter Donovan Smith allowed a total of 66 pressures on 741 pass-blocking snaps, a pressure allowed rate of 8.9%.

The big difference is that not as many of those pressures resulted in sacks last year. Morris/Smith only allowed 4 sacks last season and Suamataia/Morris have already allowed twice that number in 12 games. This corresponds to the eye test. While the total number of presses is about the same, Suamataia/Morris had far more “hard losses” where the defender beat them so quickly that Patrick Mahomes didn’t have time to escape.

Can Humphries improve these numbers? Well, the answer to that will certainly depend on his healthy and playing condition. If Humphries’ mobility is severely limited compared to last season, it could cause his level of play to suffer. Chiefs fans should keep this in mind if Kansas City decides to play it safe with Humphries and give him more time to get into game shape. The Chiefs will rightly prioritize their playoff run over getting him on the field as quickly as possible.

However, if KC gets a similar version of Humphries to last season, what will that look like? The good news is that it should actually be a noticeable improvement over what we’ve seen from KC’s left tackles this season (not that it’s a high hurdle to overcome). Humphries had 568 pass-blocking snaps last season. That’s comparable to the 522 combined passes blocked by Suamataia/Morris this season. While KC’s tackles allowed 8 sacks, 12 quarterback hits and 46 total pressures, Humphries allowed 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits and 28 total pressures on 46 more pass-blocking snaps last season.

Humphries’ pressure rate allowed was just 4.9% last season. That alone would be enough to help Patrick Mahomes, but the biggest improvement actually comes in the number of immediate losses that result in sacks or quarterback hits. Suamataia and Morris have allowed a sack or a QB hit on 3.8% of their pass-blocking snaps. Humphries only allowed a sack or QB hit on 1.6% of his pass-blocking snaps last season.

If you want another point of comparison, let’s compare him to Jawaan Taylor this season. Taylor has allowed 7 sacks, 5 quarterback hits and 28 total pressures in 524 pass blocking snaps. That equates to a total pressure rate allowed of 5.3% and a sack/QB hit rate of 2.3%. So last season Humphries was better than Taylor, and this season too.

I have another one for you. This season, Orlando Brown Jr. has allowed just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits and 13 total pressures in 325 pass-blocking snaps for the Cincinnati Bengals. That equates to just a 4% overall pressure rate and a 1.8% sack/QB hit rate. However, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Looking back at Brown’s final season in KC, where he played in that system with Patrick Mahomes, he allowed 4 sacks, 7 QB hits, and 47 total pressures on a whopping 769 pass blocking snaps. That equates to a pressure rate allowed of 6.1% and a sacks/QB hits rate of 1.4%. So last season compared to Brown’s last season in KC, Humphries was slightly better in terms of total pressures allowed and about the same level in terms of sacks/QB hits.

The bottom line here is that the Chiefs have had terrible play at left tackle so far this season, particularly in pass protection. If Humphries can at least come close to his form from last season for KC, it should be a noticeable improvement. If he can give the Chiefs some average left tackle play, it should allow Mahomes to relax in the pocket and give him the time to attack down the field more. This could pave the way for more big performances from Xavier Worthy – and if Hollywood Brown returns, that will only help.

The Chiefs may still have some questions about their pass defense, but there’s certainly reason to believe that the 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs could get significantly better on offense over time and heading into the playoffs if Humphries and Brown can contribute at a level that we have come to expect from them. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the NFL and a reason for Chiefs fans to believe that the Chiefs could be peaking again at just the right time this season.