How much snow will we see in VA this winter? See 4 predictions

VIRGINIA – How cold and snowy will the coming winter be in Virginia?

While winter doesn’t officially begin until December 21st, meteorological winter begins this weekend – December 1st.

Several forecasters have made their predictions about how snowy the season will be here in the Commonwealth. Here’s a look at what they say:

AccuWeather

An AccuWeather 2024-25 winter forecast calls for warmer weather and less snowfall. However, a cold snap in late winter is also possible.

According to the private weather company’s forecast, winter will bring some “meteorological twists and turns” that could bring heavy snowfalls and blasts of bitterly cold air. One of the main factors playing a role in this long-term forecast is the La Niña weather pattern, which can influence the trajectory of snowstorms.

Those living north and west of the Baltimore-Washington region will experience lower temperatures and possibly get more snow than last winter, the weather company said.

“Most areas of the Northeast will see more snow this season than last winter. An increase in snowfall is also likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan,” AccuWeather’s forecast said.

Most of Virginia, with the exception of the Hampton Roads area, will experience severe cold and possibly snow in December. However, the cold weather will be short-lived as a new weather pattern emerges as we enter 2025. This will result in milder temperatures across the state and less snow, according to the AccuWeather forecast.

February is the most likely month for the arrival of a polar vortex – a large area of ​​cold, low-pressure air that rotates around the Earth’s poles and can expand in winter, pushing cold air south.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac

In its 2024-2025 outlook, The Old Farmer’s Almanac called for the coming season to be “a quieter, gentler winter” for much of the United States.

“This winter, temperatures will rise and snowfall will decrease across most of the United States,” said Carol Connare, editor in chief of the Old Almanac. “While there will continue to be cool temperatures and snow on most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season are unlikely to be as significant. We predict a moderate, uneventful winter – perhaps a welcome change from the extremes of recent years.”

Virginia is divided into the Coastal Atlantic Corridor in Region 7, while the central and western counties are in Region 3 with the Appalachian region, which is also expected to experience a more temperate winter than usual. The corridor includes suburban Northern Virginia as well as major cities from Boston to Washington, DC and Richmond.

This region should experience average to slightly above average daily highs in the winter (but 2% colder than average in February). The region will also experience cold snaps in mid-December, early and late January, and late February, the release said.

Rainfall in the D.C. suburbs and coastal Virginia will be slightly below normal this winter. In this region, snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south. Most snow is expected to fall in late December and late February.

Region 7 extends south from Frederick, Maryland, through Roanoke and on to Asheville, North Carolina. In this part of the Commonwealth, winter temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal and below normal rainfall is expected. The coldest periods occur from mid-January to early February and late February.

Rainfall will be below normal in Region 7. However, look for average snowfall in the north and above-average snowfall in the southern Appalachians.

The Farmer’s Almanac

The 208th Edition of the Farmers’ Almanac predicts a “Wet Winter Whirlwind” for the 2024-2025 winter season. The forecast calls for fast-moving storms bringing both rain and snow with brief downtime in between.

“We expect the winter of 2024-25 to be wet and cold in most locations,” The Farmers’ Almanac predicts.

Mild temperatures and snow are expected in Maryland this winter, editors said.

The Farmers’ Almanac says there are “red flags” for most of the eastern half of the country during the last week of January. Expect a very active storm track with frequent heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in Virginia this winter, according to a new 2024-25 winter forecast for December, January and February.

According to the updated winter outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the chances of above-average precipitation compared to below-average precipitation in Northern Virginia are about 50-50. However, coastal and southeastern Virginia have a 33 to 40 percent chance of below normal precipitation.

Specifically, the outlook assumes that the probability of above-average temperatures is between 40 and 50 percent and the probability of above-average precipitation is 50 percent in Northern Virginia and DC. A small corner of southwest Virginia has a 33 to 40 percent chance of above-average temperatures, the forecast says.

NOAA said the data supports the development of a weak La Niña, lacking some of the stormy impact traditionally seen in such climate patterns. In the Northeast, temperatures along the East Coast are expected to be above normal. The forecast assumes rainfall will be above normal across much of the region.