How SMU’s College Football Playoff chances are tied to Alabama’s

Barring a disaster, such as a massive dose of pepper spray Saturday in the Southeastern Conference title game, second-seeded Texas will make the College Football Playoff and win or lose against fifth-seeded Georgia.

But could SMU, eighth in Tuesday’s new rankings, survive a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game and still make the field?

You can bet that Alabama will win for the Mustangs.

You should also know that Bama could fight them off.

Stay here with me.

Warde Manuel, chairman of the CFP committee, made it clear Tuesday that they have “high regard” for the teams that play in their conference championship games. He also said teams that don’t play on Saturday won’t be able to advance because they don’t have additional data points to consider.

That means Miami, in 12th place and sitting at home on Saturday, has no chance of making the playoffs because it will be left behind by the Big 12 champion, which has secured one of the five automatic qualifiers and at least 12th place. Secures space.

The potential problem for No. 11 seed Alabama is that the Rebels would also move into the top 12 if No. 20 seed UNLV beats No. 10 Boise State in the Mountain West championship game. In this case, both the 11th and 12th seeds would be bumped up.

But wins from Clemson and UNLV might not be bad for Alabama, even if the Crimson Tide doesn’t play.

And that could be bad for SMU.

Trust me. I asked.

Could SMU fall under Alabama if it loses?

“Possibly yes,” Manuel said.

In a scenario where Clemson and UNLV win, the ACC and Big 12 would claim the third and fourth spots as well as the byes and the Mountain West would finish in 12th place. Boise would likely opt out and be replaced by UNLV. If SMU loses, the committee would likely choose between the 10-2 Mustangs and 9-3 Tide for the 11th seed.

Of course, a loss does not automatically mean that SMU would fall. Manuel quickly noted the 2022 Big 12 title game, when third-seeded TCU lost 31-28 to Kansas State and remained the third seed.

But he also made no assurances.

“We’ll just have to wait and see how the committee will analyze this game,” Manuel said of the ACC title game.

The safest bet for the Mustangs: Win Saturday and you’re in. Alabama would accept that too.

Twitter/X: @KSherringtonDMN

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