How the Minnesota Vikings can secure a spot in the playoffs this week

At 10-2 after Sunday’s win over the Cardinals, the Vikings have all but secured their spot in the NFL postseason. FTN Fantasy’s DVOA gives them a 99.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

And you can mathematically secure a place in the coming week. Here’s how:

1. Vikings win against Falcons
2. Seahawks win at Cardinals
3. Bills win at Rams

These are the three steps needed for the Vikings to technically win in Week 14. The Rams have to lose because they have a direct tiebreaker against Minnesota. The Vikings retain the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Cardinals, but there is still a situation where Arizona wins the NFC West and the Vikings lose the tiebreaker against the Seahawks, who they play in Week 16. That’s why the Cardinals have to lose this week.

Put more simply: The Vikings just need to win two of their last five games and then the other results won’t matter, at least not for making the playoffs. They have the Falcons this week, the Bears the following week, and finish with the Seahawks (away), the Packers and the Lions (away).

But sowing will also be important. This is what the current NFC playoff picture looks like:

The Vikings have 10 wins and are still the fifth seed due to the Lions’ 11-1 record. That’s an unfortunate reality of the NFL’s playoff format, which seeds division winners one through four. The win against Arizona was crucial to staying within touching distance of Detroit, but DVOA still only gives the Vikings an 8.1 percent chance of winning the NFC North. The Vikings have a 57.9 percent chance of being the No. 5 seed and a 27.7 percent chance of being the No. 6 seed.

It is noteworthy that the Lions host the Packers Football on Thursday evenings this week, which means one of them has to lose. A Green Bay win would be huge as it would increase the Vikings’ chances in the division. The consolation of a Detroit win would be that it helps the Vikings retain 5th place. The Lions then host the 10-2 Bills in Week 15 before concluding with games against the Bears (away), 49ers (away) and Vikings.

This is a big month of December.