How the Raiders can move back up the NFL Draft and land a QB in the final two weeks

HENDERSON, Nev. – Antonio Pierce doesn’t care. The head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) knows there is speculation about his job security and that many people think he’s a lame duck heading into the offseason. But he doesn’t send it by mail and isn’t worried about the draft regulation.

“We’re not doing this to lose,” Pierce said Monday. “None of that matters to us. The only thing that counts is victory. That’s all we want to do.”

But We Care. We know some fans are upset about likely missing out on a chance to go first in the draft and land a top quarterback. So here’s our belated gift: a look at the Raiders’ best path to Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward in the draft.

With their win over the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) last Sunday, the Raiders fell from No. 2 to No. 6 in the projected order at the top of the 2025 NFL Draft. They are now on track to finish behind the No. 1 New York Giants (2-13), New England Patriots (3-12), Jaguars, Tennessee Titans (3-12) and Cleveland Browns ( 3-12).

This has left a significant portion of the Raiders fan base upset that their chances of signing one of the top quarterback prospects, namely Sanders of Colorado or Ward of Miami, have diminished. For these fans, the good news is that there are still two weeks left in the 2024 regular season and their team could still move back up the draft list.

Updated NFL Draft order (NYG is clear favorite for No. 1 pick)

1. Giants (2-13)
2. Patriots (3-12)
3. Jaguars (3-12)
4. Titans (3-12)
5. Browns (3-12)
6. Raiders (3-12)
7. Panthers (4-11)
8. Jets (4-11)
9. Bears (4-11)

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) December 23, 2024

The Raiders travel to play the New Orleans Saints (5-10) on Sunday. Las Vegas has shown it can lose to any team, but the Saints could be beatable if they are without Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and old friend Derek Carr, all of whom are dealing with injuries.

In the season finale, the Raiders host the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), whom they defeated 22-10 in Week 1. The Chargers have not yet secured a playoff spot, and even if they do in Week 17, they may still be playing for the seeding in Week 18. Division games can get strange, but if the Chargers haven’t determined their playoff positioning and decide to rest their starters, it’s hard to imagine the Raiders knocking them out.

But how the Raiders perform won’t be the only factor in where they are placed in the first round of the draft. If they end up tied with another team, the first tiebreaker will determine the strength of the schedule. When teams have the same strength in the schedule, division or conference tiebreakers come into play. If these do not apply, there will be direct duels. If these don’t apply, things get complicated, but we’ll spare you those details for now.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s in store for the teams pursuing the Raiders in the draft order.

New York Giants (No. 1)

With their televised mistreatment of Saquon Barkley this offseason, the Giants are the reason no team should be on Hard Knocks. Not to mention, owner John Mara prophetically lamented the possibility of Barkley succeeding with the Eagles.

If you’re Mara, that’s a good reason to clean house, and there’s no better way to do it than with the No. 1 pick. The Giants are like a Japanese bullet train in this regard, losing ten games in a row with the subtlety of a circus clown. Last week, Drew Lock threw two pick sixes.

Lock injured his shoulder but is expected to play Sunday against the Colts. This is good news for Giants fans because while Lock has a good arm, his lack of pocket awareness and disdain for ball security will keep the express train running.

The Giants land at Philadelphia, which likely has the No. 2 seed in the NFC and could rest quarterback Jalen Hurts. But the Giants were embarrassed by the Eagles 28-3 in their first meeting, and Kenny Pickett isn’t so bad.

So, Raiders fans, tip your hat to the Giants. This way you can (implicitly) hope for first place. The Raiders can’t get past the Giants. Neither does anyone else.

New England Patriots (No. 2)

A New England radio station played Dido’s song “Thank You” on Monday, in which he praised the Raiders for beating the Jaguars and moving the Patriots up to No. 2 on the draft board… so that they (maybe) turn around and take the pick They can trade the Raiders for a boatload of picks.

That’s because the Patriots got their franchise quarterback this year in Drake Maye. The 22-year-old has overcome a brutal offensive line (with 72 rushing pressures allowed, tied with the Bengals for the most in the NFL) and timid receivers, keeping the Patriots in half their games over the past two months. They’re 2-6 in that span, four losses total 13 points, and Maye is good for two or three big shots on the run per week.

That makes it a little difficult to maintain second place. They host the Chargers on Sunday, and given Los Angeles’ lack of offensive prowess, an upset is possible. In Week 18, the Patriots host the Bills, who may have nothing to play for since the Kansas City Chiefs already have the No. 1 seed.

In short, Patriots fans shouldn’t entirely thank the Raiders just yet. In two weeks it could be the other way around.

Go deeper

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Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3) and Tennessee Titans (No. 4)

The Jaguars and Titans play each other on Sunday in Duval, so we’ve summarized them. Unless there is a tie, you will fail in the draft order. If they are tied, then both will do it. Both outcomes would be positive for those rooting for the Raiders’ draft, but the most ideal would be a Tennessee win.

That’s because Jacksonville just signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract and is not a threat to take a quarterback in Round 1. Tennessee, on the other hand, recently benched 2023 second-round pick Will Levis and will likely explore options. Those rooting for the Raiders to sign a quarterback could breathe a little easier with a Titans win.

Looking ahead to Week 18, the Jaguars play the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) on the road while the Titans host the Houston Texans (9-7). The Colts are still in the playoffs, so they might have something to play for. And even though the Texans have already won the AFC South, they may find themselves fighting the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) or the Ravens for the playoff spot.

It would help the Raiders’ draft positioning if both the Jaguars and Titans won in Week 18, but that feels like wishful thinking. Still, the Raiders will overtake at least one of these teams as long as they lose.

Cleveland Browns (No. 5)

The Raiders beat the Browns in Week 4 — a day before then-injured receiver Davante Adams requested a trade — leaving Cleveland holding the tiebreaker in the draft order. To get past the Browns, the Raiders will need to win at least one of their final two games.

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is projected to have a cap hit of $72.935 million in 2025, so he’ll likely be on the roster, but he suffered a torn Achilles tendon in Week 7 and has been doing terribly since Cleveland signed him in 2022 swapped. This would be such an organizational mistake if the Browns didn’t pursue an upgrade at quarterback.

The Browns host the Miami Dolphins (7-8) this week and travel to face the Baltimore Ravens (11-5) in Week 18. The Dolphins have been notoriously bad in cold-weather games since drafting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. When it’s 45 degrees or colder, Tagovailoa has a record of 0-7. While 55 degrees are forecast for Sunday in Cleveland, it is expected to be windy and rainy. Maybe the Browns can take advantage of the bad weather and upset the Dolphins.

Beating the Ravens on the road, who could be playing to win the AFC North, will be much more difficult. It doesn’t bode well for the Raiders’ chances of overtaking the Browns if Cleveland can’t beat the Dolphins.

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(Photo of Deshaun Watson being attacked by K’Lavon Chaisson and Charles Snowden: Steve Marcus / Getty Images)