How Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s status impacts the Blue Jays’ offseason

This story is excerpted from the Blue Jays Beat newsletter by Keegan Matheson. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO – The next two months should show us who the Blue Jays are. Not just for 2025, but beyond.

There’s a sense of urgency to this offseason – overdue, many would say – but we’re back to the discussion of competitive windows for this organization. In each of the next two winters there is a chance that these windows will slam shut, but that doesn’t have to happen. At least for a club that spends as much money as Toronto, that should never be the case.

First, let’s break down what this all means. Many of the Blue Jays’ biggest names see their contracts expire after the 2025 or 26 season, including:

Expiry after 2025: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., SS Bo Bichette, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP Chad Green, RHP Erik Swanson

Expiry after 2026: RHP Kevin Gausman, OF George Springer, OF Daulton Varsho, C Alejandro Kirk (Note: RHP José Berríos can opt out of the final two years of his contract after 2026)

It was easier for this organization to weather the disappointments of 2020-23 because it was still adding new contracts and had the majority of those big contracts still ahead of it, but at the same time, there are a lot of expirations looming now. The Blue Jays haven’t had one lately to boast their only postseason win. They’re spending at a rate that fans in this market would have hoped for, especially with an ownership group that has long been able to do so, but the results aren’t coming when it counts.

Vladdy is once again the face of the franchise, the prodigy who has once again won all the hype. As indirect as Guerrero’s path has been, he has proven that he is a player deserving of a mega deal. Think of something in the range of these names:

Guerrero may have a difficult time finding a match given his position, but that’s the range Guerrero could land in and those are the names he’ll be compared to from a broader value standpoint. We can argue a few million dollars either way, but at this price that’s a drop in the bucket. Guerrero will make money, whether in Toronto or elsewhere.

Extending Guerrero this offseason would essentially guarantee that the Blue Jays will continue to spend money through 2026, 2027 and beyond. In this world, if a star like Gausman or Bichette were to leave in free agency, he would be replaced aggressively. In a world without Guerrero – or another long-term star like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried – there is a growing concern that the Blue Jays could use these ’26 and ’27 seasons to switch, retool, rebuild, whatever the buzzword you use. Would like to attach to it.

The passage of time doesn’t exactly increase optimism either.

Soon, Juan Soto will sign a monster deal. Yes, the Blue Jays are serious about taking on Soto, but they’re up against the freewheeling Steve Cohen and the Mets, the pride of the Yankees and the seemingly revitalized spirit of the Red Sox. It’s not impossible, but good luck. If we add Soto’s deal, which is expected to exceed $500 million and could exceed $600 million, along with Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal from a year ago, it’s clear that the MLB contracts are for the right ones Stars soar.

Guerrero is not one of the men mentioned above, but he will enter free agency at 26 years old with both feet still in his prime. Unless the Blue Jays offer him the world, Guerrero has every reason to live it up and launch an incredible bidding war this time next year. It’s a dangerous, dangerous game for Toronto.

Soto’s pursuit is the shiny new story, but it all comes back to Guerrero, and that will only intensify next week when the MLB Winter Meetings take place in Dallas. Are the Blue Jays trying to repeat this again and then figure out 2026 when 26 comes around? Or can this organization transform last year’s budget into Toronto’s new norm and sit at the table with baseball’s stars for the next decade?

The answer, as it always has, may still lie with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.