In 2025, global grosses are expected to reach $33 billion

According to Gower Street Analytics, global box office revenue is expected to reach $33 billion in 2025. This early look at next year assumes 2025 will be about 8% higher than 2024, which the London-based company is currently expected to close at $30.5 billion.

If true, the global forecast for 2025 would put the year at historical exchange rates at -14% compared to the average of the last three years before the pandemic (2017-2019). It is also 3% behind the full-year 2023 result, although the 2025 forecast would be 1% above 2023 if recalculated using current exchange rates.

For 2025, Gower Street forecasts North America will grow 9% compared to 2024 to approximately $9.7 billion. That’s -16% compared to the 2017-2019 average, but 6% more than 2023.

The international market (excluding China) is expected to grow by 7% to approximately $16.8 billion by 2024. That would be -12% compared to the 2017-2019 average and -2% compared to 2023 at historical exchange rates (although +4% when adjusted to today’s exchange rates).

Regionally, Europe, the Middle East and Africa are expected to reach $9.1 billion in 2025 (-9% vs. 2017-2019; +6% vs. 2024), Asia Pacific (ex China) is expected to reach US$5.3 billion (-18% compared to 2017-2017). 2019, +8% compared to 2024) and Latin America is estimated at $2.4 billion (-5% compared to 2024). 2017-2019; +7% compared to 2024).

According to Gower Street, China is currently projecting $6.6 billion in 2025. Dependence on Hollywood products is becoming increasingly less, and due to the current limited release calendar, this remains the hardest market to predict.

“2025 is set to be a strong year for the global box office, driven by solid studio schedules and independent productions,” said Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street Analytics.

“The domestic market is expected to approach and potentially exceed the $10 billion mark, moving closer to pre-pandemic norms,” Mitsinikos added. “However, product availability is only part of the equation. A stronger dollar could hamper international box office growth, compounded by evolving socioeconomic and political factors that have shaped the box office in recent years.”

“The 2025 release calendar has it all,” said Rob Mitchell, Director of Theatrical Insights at Gower Street. “There are expansions to the billion-dollar movie franchises Avatar, MCU, Mission: Impossible, Jurassic World, John Wick and The Conjuring; the sequel to the billion-dollar animated hit Zootopia; the start of the new DC Universe with James Gunn Superman; The conclusion of the current box office hit Evil; multiple live-action interpretations of beloved family hits from Walt Disney and DreamWorks; and a host of other exciting original IP titles from visionary directors such as Bong Joon-ho, Osgood Perkins, Ryan Coogler and Joseph Kosinski. There is enormous potential for global outbreaks that extend even beyond our current forecasts.”

Thomas Beranek, principal analyst at Gower Street, expects greater growth, with 2025 representing “a step forward”; 2026 “is expected to be the breakthrough year,” Beranek said.

As for the current estimate of $30.5 billion for 2024, this year the impact of the two Hollywood strikes was felt in 2023, and while Gower raised his full-year 2024 forecast back in April to $32.3 billion -Dollar had been revised upwards, China is expected to receive 7.9 billion US dollars. However, the market suffered from economic challenges and declining returns due to some of the major holidays, resulting in the largest difference between the original and current estimates.

The analytics firm notes that 2025 is a very early prediction and further changes to the release calendar could result in some fluctuations. There are also a number of Untitled studio releases currently underway, which could impact forecasts as more is revealed about these titles.