In November, South County moved to the right, highlighting Democrats’ vulnerability

This story is part of a series by Public Matters, a reporting project in collaboration with KPBS and inewsource. Read more stories here.

Four years ago, the Democratic Party appeared to be on its way to dominance in South San Diego County.

In 2020, South County voters elected a Democrat to the county Board of Supervisors, ending generations of Republican control. Democrats held a majority in two of the region’s three major city councils and were inching toward control of a third. Republicans were outnumbered on the voter rolls by nearly two to one.

Last November, this forward momentum came to an abrupt halt.

Voice of San Diego, along with our Public Matters partners KPBS and inewsource, recently crunched the numbers and examined how voting patterns in San Diego County have changed from 2020 to 2024.

Despite its reputation as a safe bet for Democrats, South County moved significantly to the right in November. Even more surprising, the shift was most pronounced along the U.S.-Mexico border, contradicting some analysts’ predictions that Donald Trump’s tough anti-immigration rhetoric would alienate Latinos and voters with cross-border ties.

In San Diego’s District 8, where three-quarters of residents are Latino and many live within sight of the border, Trump’s share of the vote rose by as much as a third depending on the district. In 2020, only 29 percent of voters in San Ysidro supported Trump. Four years later, Trump’s share rose to 41 percent – more than a third more. In Nestor, National City and Chula Vista, shifts were similar, although slightly smaller.

To understand this unexpected trend, we gathered a cross-section of local voters in National City and asked them to tell us how they voted and what issues were most important to them. Their thoughtful, insightful answers varied widely but boiled down to a common theme.

National City voter Sherry Gogue put it well: “We are tired of the status quo. We want change. We had the same thing over and over again. And not much has changed.”

Our panel of 10 voters included Democrats, Republicans and one independent. They disagreed on some issues, particularly the extent to which the government should seek to reduce economic and social inequality.

But they were united in the belief that San Diego’s current leaders – and the nation’s – don’t seem up to the task of solving big problems. Regardless of party, they wanted change. They wanted leaders who would deliver on their campaign promises and show tangible progress in improving San Diego.

Several issues emerged as common causes of frustration.

Micaela Polanco, an independent who co-owns a mortuary in National City and voted for Kamala Harris, said she has watched people in her community feel a growing “sense of insecurity,” which she sees as a seeming lack of control over the U.S. and Mexico designated border.

“There were a lot of people coming from all over the world and it had an impact on our border,” she said. “That’s what I think happened as the number of people who voted for Trump increased… People really believe that Trump will at least get stronger enforcement of immigration rules and regulations. Under the Biden and Kamala Harris administration, however, things were more relaxed or they didn’t really step up enforcement.”

Other voters pointed to homelessness, public drug use and a general sense of disorder. Sandy Naranjo, a San Diego Democrat and former port commissioner, said: “I would wake up near her kids’ school and what do I see?” I see a sidewalk that needs repair. I see human trafficking on a Tuesday morning. And my children are exposed to all of this. And so (voters) get tired of their local authorities not being able to change (things).”

Economic uncertainty was also a high priority. Liliana Armenta, a Republican from National City, said she is friends with both Democrats and Republicans. Regardless of party, she said, “Ultimately, I think we all look out for our own family economy and our own family life, our own family security.” I look out for myself. I have two kids in college. But I have my 14-year-old daughter here (at home). And I want to vote and make decisions that will impact them here in the near future.”

Although political analysts often describe the American electorate as almost irreparably divided, voters in our panel were remarkably united on some so-called “hot-button issues.”

When asked about the rights of transgender people, everyone agreed that no one should be discriminated against based on their sexual identity. But some opposed a recently passed California policy that bars schools from warning parents when children question their gender identity at school.

They agreed that racism remains a problem in American society, although some wished more recognition was given to recent progress on the issue.

All said they viewed America as a nation of immigrants, although even those from immigrant families said they preferred immigrants take legal paths to citizenship.

Ultimately, they said, such social issues are less important in the voting booth than more fundamental concerns like the cost of living and public safety. As Armenta put it, “How are we going to fix this? Who will be the best person to fix it?”

This shared sense of frustration with the status quo could become a factor in the upcoming race to replace recently resigned San Diego County Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Nora Vargas.

Vargas, who represented South County, fought and won as an avowed progressive. Her commitment to left-leaning causes continued until her final weeks in office, when she pushed for controversial policies that limited county authorities’ cooperation with federal immigration authorities.

Just four years after Vargas took office, the political landscape in South County appears to be completely different.

As Naranjo put it, “There will be a shift to the right because we have Democrats in power and they are not doing what they are supposed to do.”