Juan Soto’s on-base skills are the best in the MLB

Juan Soto is a once-in-a-lifetime player in his prime who is having the best season of his career… and this season may have been even better than you think.

With the winter meetings starting soon and Soto’s free agent decision potentially coming any day, here’s another chance to take a look at what makes Soto so uniquely great. It’s another way to measure his defining characteristic as a hitter: being the strongest in baseball.

Statcast generates “expected” stats for each hitter based on his contact quality – the exit velocity and launch angle of all balls he hits – combined with the walks he draws and the strikeouts he throws.

The first metrics you see in Statcast’s expected stat rankings are expected batting average and expected slugging percentage, and Soto excels in both areas. His .316 xBA with the Yankees in 2024 ranked second in the majors behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s .321, and his .646 xSLG ranked third behind Aaron Judge’s .723 and Shohei Ohtani’s .660.

But the skill that makes Juan Soto Juan Soto is that he will fight his way on base at all costs. So let’s look at the third part of his expected slash line: the expected on-base percentage.

Soto’s xOBP was .444 this season. That was No. 1 in the majors. But not just for 2024.

Highest expected OBP in a single season
Statcast era (since 2015)

In other words, Juan Soto is one of the best base machines we’ve seen in the batter’s box in the last decade. One could argue that he is The largest.

Soto, Trout and Votto are perfectly positioned at the top of the leaderboard. These are three of the greatest hitters of their generation, united by the fundamental ability to “make no outs.”

In 2024, Soto’s best season to date, his expected on-base percentage was even better than his actual on-base percentage of .419, an elite mark in itself. In fact, he was a hair better than his previous best season in 2021.

Soto also surpassed both MVPs – his Yankees superstar teammate Aaron Judge, who led the MLB in true on-base percentage with .458, and Shohei Ohtani, who led the NL with .390.

Highest expected OBP, 2024
Qualified batsmen

Soto’s combination of elite contact hitting and elite plate discipline puts him in a class of his own. This season, 24% of Soto’s swings produced hard contact (an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater), the best performance among any hitter who completed at least 1,000 swings. Also this season, Soto tracked just 18% of throws outside the strike zone, making him the second-best hitter among all hitters who saw at least 1,000 throws outside the strike zone.

Soto and Judge were the only two hitters who were near the top of the league in both categories – hard-hit rate per at-bat and chase rate – and Soto was slightly better than Judge in both cases.

The constant hard contact brings Soto his hits. His eye for the strike zone earns him his walks. The two combined make Soto more worthy of reaching base than any other MLB hitter, whether you look at who he is now, entering 2025, or who he has been since he was a 19-year-old in 2018 got into the big leagues.

Soto’s 2024 season increased his career expected on-base percentage to .417 – the best of any player in the Statcast era.

Highest expected OBP, Statcast era
Players with more than 1,000 PA since 2015

That corresponds almost perfectly to his actual career on-base percentage of .421, the best of any active player.

Soto also just spent the 2024 postseason proving that he is the same hitter on the biggest stage and can even take his game to a higher level.

Soto’s actual on-base percentage in the Yankees’ playoff run was a ridiculous .469. His expected on-base percentage in the postseason was .478.

Somehow it got even higher. Somehow, you’d expect Soto to end up on base nearly half the time during an entire World Series run, judging by how he squares the ball and takes walks while facing the toughest competition the Major Leagues have to offer.

Soto’s xOBP of .478 was one of the highest in a single postseason in the Statcast era. His career postseason xOBP is also one of the best of the Statcast era. Soto has a .413 xOBP in his playoff runs with the Nationals in 2019, the Padres in 2022 and the Yankees in 2024.

Highest expected OBP in a single postseason, Statcast era
Batters with 50+ PA this postseason

Best overall postseason xOBP, Statcast era
Batters with over 100 postseason PA since 2015

Soto will reach base 40% of the time in the regular season. Then he’ll do it again in the playoffs. He will then repeat the process over and over again for years.

The current version of Juan Soto is an on-base threat equivalent to Mike Trout’s peak or Joey Votto’s peak. That’s the caliber of impact the team that signs Soto will receive.