KSHB 41 Weather Special | Get ready for winter

KANSAS CITY, Missouri – Kansas City, it’s time to get ready for winter!

The KSHB 41 weather team has been combing through the data and finding clues about what the upcoming season could bring. So let’s delve deeper into the science behind winter weather patterns and explore the factors that influence our local climate.

We also discuss the recent increase in Northern Lights sightings and provide tips on how best to clear snow and ice this season. Plus, it’s not Christmas without something sweet. We’ll introduce you to a local chocolatier and discuss how our weather plays a role in her craft.

Northern Lights Activity: Lindsey Anderson

The Northern Lights are usually confined to higher latitudes and dance across our sky more often thanks to the active sun.

Many KSHB 41 viewers sent in their stunning images, and at times we could even faintly see the different colors near the city lights.

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The Sun goes through an 11-year cycle, alternating between periods of solar minimum and solar maximum.

During solar maximum, the sun becomes more active, producing more sunspots and solar flares.

These solar flares release charged particles that interact with Earth’s atmosphere, creating the stunning aurora borealis.

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KSHB 41

While the Northern Lights are usually confined to polar regions, periods of intense solar activity can push them further south, allowing us to observe this natural wonder in unexpected places.

NASA and NOAA can’t determine exactly when we’ll reach the peak of our solar maximum period until they detect a decline in solar activity, but space weather researchers predict that the impressive solar storms and northern lights sightings, even in urban areas, could last another year!

Lindsey’s note on winter: “I think we will see near average to slightly above average temperatures this winter. This means we will still see large temperature swings over the course of the season – from a very warm stretch to a very cold stretch.”

La Niña influence: Cassie Wilson

The big winter weather headlines every year have something to do with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

This year the headline focus is on La Niña, which is honestly a bit of a murky signal here in Kansas City.

The effects are more pronounced where storms occur on the coast and along the jet stream outlet regions.

La Niña brings wetter than normal conditions only to our east, warmer conditions to our south, and colder conditions to the northern plains.

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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) estimates there is a 57% chance of La Niña occurring in December and lasting until March 2025.

But when it comes to snowfall, Kansas City tends to be right on the edge where the La Niña snow machine runs out of steam.

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When La Niña hits, it will likely be weak, so let’s zoom in further. Weak La Niñas don’t tell us much about the snow picture in Kansas City, but they do tend to give us more rain on average.

KSHB 41

KSHB 41

Cassie’s note: “There could be an upswing or downswing in snow this winter. “That means we could see some long dry stretches, but then we’ll see the systems line up… but will it just be rain or could we see big snowfalls?”

Understanding Cold Snaps: Wes Peery

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is actually just another way to describe the effect of the polar vortex. The polar vortex is located in the stratosphere, which is 10 to 30 miles above us.

Meanwhile, we and all the weather we experience live in the troposphere, which is five to nine miles above us and is therefore just one expression of what the polar vortex does.

Stable/Positive Phase: Cold air is moving quickly around the Arctic, bringing us here to Kansas and Missouri with warmer or above average temperatures.

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Negative phase: This means that the polar vortex is actually weaker, allowing cold air to break away from the poles and flow south. At this time we are monitoring for possible cold air outbreaks.

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Wes’ note: “The Arctic Oscillation tells us whether cold outbreaks are likely or not, so we can warn you if a visit from the polar vortex is coming in a few weeks.”

The LRC Conundrum: Jeff Penner

One theory behind the possible winter storm cycle is the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).

This cycle begins in October and November, and over the course of this 60-day period we can begin to predict what the coming winter months might look like. Not only is it important to know the winter forecast as there will be a lot of snow, but it is also important for agriculture.

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So will this weather pattern reduce or increase the drought pattern in the plains?

Read Jeff’s full blog here: KSHB 41 Weather Blog | Winter forecast special tonight!

Jeff’s Winter Note: “By the end of October, drought conditions were rapidly deteriorating, and then the squalls arrived. So the expectation is that drought conditions will improve or even disappear.”

Best Practices for Melting Ice: Wes Peery

Before turning off the ice melt, check the minimum temperature for the night! Wes explains that colder temperatures require different types of ice melt in the video below:

KSHB 41’s Wes Peery tells you which ice melts work best

Finally, here’s what you need to know:

• Above 15 degrees: Use rock salt
• Below 15 degrees: Use magnesium chloride
• Below zero: Use calcium chloride

“Weathered” Chocolate: Cassie Wilson

Julie House, the mastermind behind Panache Chocolates, is redefining the world of chocolate here in Kansas City. Her commitment to quality and unique flavors has earned her international recognition.

Despite the challenges of making chocolate in an unpredictable climate, Julie’s passion and expertise shine through in every bite.

Climate change poses a significant threat to the global chocolate industry.

The delicate cocoa bean, the heart of chocolate, thrives under certain climatic conditions.

As global temperatures rise and weather changes, these ideal conditions will become increasingly rare – this can lead to lower yields, higher prices and potential shortages.

KSHB 41 – climate control center

Read the full story here: How a Kansas City store is “surviving” the global chocolate scene.

Team snow forecasts

Our team average is 14 inches of snow for Kansas City, which puts us below average.

In an average year, Kansas City typically receives 18.2 inches of snow.

Our team agrees that the winter could be wetter than normal, but there is uncertainty as to whether the cold snaps will coincide with the stormy part of the pattern.

Jeff says maybe it will, but Cassie isn’t entirely convinced. Hence Jeff’s 20-inch forecast and Cassie counting on more rain instead of snow. Lindsey is also in the deep snow train, while Wes is right in the middle.

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