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At first glance, US President Donald Trump’s latest message to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin appears to be a threat.

“We can do it the easy way or the hard way,” Trump thundered in a social media post on Wednesday calling on Putin to make a “deal” with Ukraine.

If the “ridiculous war” didn’t end soon, Trump warned, he would have “no choice but to impose heavy taxes, tariffs and sanctions on everything Russia sells to the United States.”

But after years of international financial pressure aimed at punishing Moscow for its various malign activities, it is unclear what other measures Trump is considering might make a difference.

Remember: Already one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world with minimal trade with the United States, Russia has so far refused to change course.

After years of failed American efforts to curb Moscow’s destructive actions abroad – from wars to poisonings to election meddling – the latest Trump ultimatum appears to be more of a reassurance to Russia hawks in his new administration than a real threat of decisive action.

Much more significant is Trump’s very public offer to negotiate a peace agreement – albeit an offer wrapped in a backhanded insult.

“I will do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin a huge favor,” Trump wrote.

Given the state of war, Russia’s economy is indeed under enormous pressure, and Russian opinion polls consistently suggest that there is little public enthusiasm for Putin’s relentless fight for complete dominance over his Ukrainian neighbors.

While it is true that Putin is becoming increasingly autocratic and less accountable to his voters, the Kremlin is still keeping a close eye on public opinion and Trump’s departure may well be something Putin secretly welcomes.

More likely, the Kremlin will see any ceasefire as a valuable opportunity to secure territorial gains and rebuild its battered military. This would indeed be a “very big favor” for Putin.