Long-term forecast: Lionsgate is hoping for success with DEN OF THIEVES: PANTERA

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Long-term forecast – January 10, 2024

Den of Thieves: Pantera | Lionsgate

Domestic opening weekend price range: $10 million to $15 million

With the holiday season another year behind us, there’s likely to be a typical January lull in theaters, with holdovers from late 2024 competing with an eclectic mix of smaller releases. Of the latter, Lionsgate has a programmer with solid potential Den of Thieves: Panterain which a gang of LAPD cops travel to Europe to stop a diamond heist. This sequel to Den of thieveswhich has developed a cult audience in the streaming space since its release, may be able to gain an audience during an otherwise quiet time in the market.

Opening at the high end of our guidance range would mean $10 million to $15 million Den of Thieves: Pantera roughly corresponds to the first Den of thieveswhich opened in mid-January 2018 to $15.2 million, on its way to an eventual domestic haul of $44.9 million. On the lower side, a debut closer to $10 million would be reminiscent of another January action release starring Gerard Butler: 2023 Airplane ($10.2M domestic opening, $32.1M domestic total), which is about Pantera was published by Lionsgate.

The studio has had a bad year, with only two of their releases—The Strangers: Chapter One ($11.8 million) and The best Christmas competition ever ($10.7 million) – Opened over $10 million. The lack of a new action-oriented, male-dominated film since November Gladiator II ($55 million domestic opening), plus the following first Den of thieves has increased in streaming, could help Pantera find your audience. The trick is to motivate the audience enough to see the film in the theater instead of waiting to watch it at home.

In the realm of “Lionsgate cult-favorite action movie that parlayed its popularity into ticket sales for sequels,” the best-case scenario would be a performance like February 2017 John Wick: Chapter 2 (Domestic opening: $30.4 million, total: $92 million domestic). It’s unlikely: Although Den of thieves slightly frayed John Wick in terms of debut gross ($15.2 million for Den of thieves$14.4 million for John Wick) and domestic total ($44.9 million for Den of thieves$43 million for John Wick), The John Wick The crew struck. At the same time, the iron was in high demand and released a sequel, which appeared three years after the original Den of thieves‘ six years.

Despite it, PanteraThe film’s connection to the first film should help the film cost less than $20 million like Lionsgate’s recent action films like the 2024 film The Killer’s Game ($2.6 million opening domestic, $5.4 million domestic total), 2023 silent Night ($3 million opening, $8 million domestic total), 2022 Moonfall (Opening domestically: $9.8 million, totaling $19 million domestically) or 2021 The protégé (Domestic opening: $2.9 million, total: $7.4 million domestic). Outside of Lionsgate, January action releases have had varying degrees of success over the past five years, ranging from Amazon MGM to Amazon MGM The beekeeper (01/12/14, $16.5 million domestic opening, $66.2 million domestic total) to Open Road Films’ The shooter (01/15/21, $3.1M domestic total, $15.5M domestic total) or Universal The 355th (07/01/22, Opening $4.6M Domestic, Domestic Total $14.5M).

Tracking updates (as of December 20)