Miami’s playoff hopes plummet as Alabama rises in the latest College Football Playoff rankings

Miami’s playoff hopes took a near-final nosedive while Alabama got a boost Tuesday night in the final rankings before the College Football Playoff’s 12 teams are determined next weekend.

The Hurricanes (10-2) moved up six spots to No. 12 – the first team to drop out of the scheduled group after their second loss of the season. They are one spot behind the Crimson Tide (9-3), which won last week and moved up two spots to No. 11, where they are projected to be the last and fourth team in the Southeastern Conference.

To make matters worse for the Canes, selection committee chairman and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said there was no way for them to overtake Alabama since neither team is playing next weekend. The chances of them advancing due to lopsided results in this weekend’s conference title games are virtually nil.

The Miami-Alabama sorting was the strongest indication yet that the selection committee is looking not just at wins and losses, but also at strength of schedule and other factors that appear to give the SEC an edge.

“We still think Miami is a very strong team,” Manuel said. “It came down to a difference in their work…not just wins, not just losses, but the entire season and how these teams performed.”

He mentioned three key data points: Alabama was 3-1 against current top-25 teams and Miami was 0-1; Alabama is 6-1 against winning teams, while Miami is 4-2; and Miami has lost two of its last three games.

Oregon remained No. 1 for the fifth straight week and enters Saturday’s Big Ten title game against Penn State as the only undefeated team in major college football.

The pairings for the first 12-team college football playoffs will be determined Sunday, the day after the conference title games. The playoffs begin December 20th, with the title game scheduled for January 20th in Atlanta.

Ohio State moved down four spots to No. 6 after its loss to Michigan.

This moved Texas up one spot to No. 2, Penn State to No. 3, Notre Dame to No. 4 and Georgia to No. 5.

The selection committee effectively labeled the Big 12 a one-bid league, moving Arizona State and Iowa State up just one spot each to 15th and 16th.

The top five conference champions are guaranteed commitments, meaning the winner of the Big 12 title game will be in even if they don’t finish in the top 12 – another factor in Miami’s likely fall.

SMU, riding a nine-game winning streak, has moved up one notch to No. 8 and is the top-ranked team in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but is still potentially vulnerable if it loses the title game to No. 17 Clemson.

The crux of this week’s drama comes from – where else? – the SEC.

Alabama is just two weeks removed from a terrible 24-3 loss at Oklahoma. The Tide still received better treatment than Miami, which lost 42-38 at Syracuse last week and had a spot in the ACC title game on the line.

Mississippi also finished 13th in the SEC and South Carolina 14th – an answer to the question of how deep into the SEC pool the committee was willing to go. Neither team has another chance to build his resume.

Other rankings: No. 7 Tennessee, No. 9 Indiana and No. 10 Boise State. The planned group includes four teams each from the Big Ten and SEC and one each from the ACC, Mountain West and Big 12 as well as the independent Notre Dame.

The most important games of this week

SEC: This will be awkward for the loser of Texas vs. Georgia. The Longhorns are sitting too high to miss the playoffs, although a loss would leave them 0-2 against Georgia and 11-0 against everyone else, and they also have the conference’s easiest schedule. It would be Georgia’s third loss, but the committee likely won’t penalize the Bulldogs for their participation in the title game.

Big 12, Mountain West: The winner of ASU-Iowa State is still likely outside the group of four conference champions that receive first-round byes unless UNLV upsets Boise State.

ACC: If Clemson beats SMU, the team will finish in 17th place and make the ACC a potential opponent for the second straight year. (Remember Florida State last season?)

Scheduled encounters in the first round

Based on this week’s rankings. Teams sorted by seed.

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State: This game between two teams no one wants to play right now underscores the obvious benefits of avoiding the first round — which is still possible for both.

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State: What could be worse for Ohio State fans than hearing “Rocky Top” blaring through their home stadium after a loss?

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame: Bear Bryant defeated the Fighting Irish 0-4. Alabama won both games in the 21st century playoffs.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia: The Hoosiers’ reception in the big time would come between the hedgerows.

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