Michael Lombardi: Replacing an NFL coach isn’t always the answer

Michael Lombardi – Replacing an NFL coach isn’t always the answer:

At a team meeting before Thanksgiving, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin told his team that “if they need a place for Thanksgiving dinner tomorrow, his house is open to everyone.” Not only does Tomlin know how to strategically prepare his team for the weekly Not only can he win, but he also knows how to build strong team bonds. Opening his home to team members is an example of how Tomlin socializes—yet leads. He is not described as a “player-friendly” NFL coach. He is considered the ultimate leader and motivator, preparing his team for the challenges ahead on a weekly basis. The Steelers have always been united, tenacious and, most importantly, always found ways to win close games. Nothing stops Tomlin from mastering his craft every season.

While NFL organizations make changes at the head coaching position, they often don’t have as much success as Tomlin and the Steelers. Teams make change for the sake of change, which never makes sense. Look at the Falcons; They fired Arthur Smith three years in a row because he was 7-10. They don’t change their front office or their decision-making structure and hire Raheem Morris as their new guy. She all believed the addition of a quarterback was all they needed to improve, ignoring the work Smith had done to achieve the seven wins. They took steps backwards with Morris, leading many to question why didn’t they keep Smith, add a quarterback and move forward to build on the good? The Falcons won’t even come close to their winning percentage of 9.5 this summer, as many believe their Super Bowl odds are too low. Now it will take a lot of effort to win the South without having a chance of getting close to New Orleans in the Super Bowl.

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When the Patriots fired six-time Super Bowl-winning coach Bill Belichick as head coach, they said nice things at his farewell press conference. The next day, they began publicly and unofficially destroying his legacy by promoting a new environment and a friendlier atmosphere and curtailing the work ethic Belichick had built. They hired Jerod Mayo, someone the front office saw as friendlier and easier to work with, and life would improve. Comparing the 2024 Patriots to the 2023 Patriots, they have gotten worse in almost every single statistical category and have an easier schedule. The Patriots’ win total was set at 4.5, which will be difficult to achieve.

The Titans released Mike Vrabel and hired Brian Callahan to fix Will Levis at quarterback. Last season, Tennessee was without a quarterback due to Ryan Tannehill’s injuries and the team suffered because of it. This season they have gotten worse with a new offensive line and more experienced players. Levis is still massively inconsistent and makes too many mistakes. The offense has gotten worse under Callahan’s leadership. The Titans win total was set at 6.5, which was pretty ambitious and probably wouldn’t result in money.

Meanwhile, Seattle hired Mike Macdonald to improve its defense and improve its team. Their win total was 7.5 and they have now reached their over with their eighth win last weekend in Arizona. Macdonald delivered. Callahan, Mayo, Morris and Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce haven’t done that yet, and it looks like they can’t either.

For any team that hasn’t reached or even come close to their over win total, it’s fair to say they’ve taken a step backwards from last year. The change has not proven beneficial. What can we learn from last year to make money betting on futures next season? Remember, last spring everyone doubted Tomlin would surpass his win total, but everyone believed in Morris, who wasn’t a successful head coach the first time around. In his wonderful book The art of thinking clearlyAuthor Rolf Dobelli writes: “The human brain looks for patterns and rules. In fact, it goes one step further: If it doesn’t find known patterns, it simply makes them up.” We tend to believe in the hype of the offseason, the joy in the building, and the positivity of the players. But all of that is noise when it comes to winning games in the fall. We believe the “Pattern of Change” will pave the path to victory. It won’t.

Going forward, we must all be wary of change and beware of overstating the obvious. As an example: Yes, Atlanta needed a quarterback, but they also needed other areas of improvement so one player couldn’t outwork them. What we need to look at with a sharper lens is the fit of the change and whether the person coming in has the skills needed to make the change happen. Yes, Callahan can coach the offense, but can he coach Levis? More importantly, is Levis as good as Burrow? I think we all know the answer to that.

What discourages these four teams the most is that they are reliable as dogs. They are so inconsistent that we cannot see a pattern of improvement. So if they play a good game in the next two weeks, like Tennessee did against the Texans, they’ll be terrible again. The most important evaluation process for many new coaches is answering one simple question: Are we improving? The Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks and Chargers can all say yes. The rest, no. So be careful when betting on these four, even if the numbers seem tempting.

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