Microsoft stock price forecast for 2025 amid extensive antitrust investigations

Tech giant Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is at the center of a major regulatory matter, the outcome of which will likely impact the company’s stock.

The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has reportedly launched an antitrust investigation into Microsoft, focusing on the company’s software licensing and cloud computing businesses.

Sources familiar with the matter indicate that the investigation will examine Microsoft’s practices related to cybersecurity and artificial intelligence (AI) products.

Despite this news, Microsoft’s share price remained largely unaffected and remained in the green for the short term. At press time, MSFT was trading at $423, with a modest gain of less than 0.1% in the last 24 hours. On the weekly chart, MSFT has gained almost 2%.

This price move is welcome considering Microsoft’s technical outlook has been a cause for concern and the second “death cross” in a month has emerged.

AI predicts MSFT stock price for 2025

With the antitrust investigation expected to take place over the next year, Finbod consulted OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o to determine how Microsoft stock might trade through the end of 2025.

Microsoft stock will be impacted by the ongoing antitrust investigation in 2025. If penalties are imposed, it could impact valuation, but a successful defense could boost investor confidence.

Growth in cloud computing, AI through Azure and OpenAI, and increasing demand for cybersecurity will drive revenue and help address regulatory concerns. Broader market conditions, including interest rates and economic growth, will also impact performance.

As for specific price targets, ChatGPT noted that Microsoft stock is trading at a high multiple of $423, reflecting its growth potential.

Assuming stable regulatory conditions and continued growth, a conservative 10-15% annual increase could see MSFT reach between $465 and $490 by 2025. In a more optimistic scenario with strong AI and cloud growth and favorable regulatory outcomes, the stock could exceed $500. However, in the event of a bear market, regulatory penalties or slower growth in key areas could push the price back to $375-$400.

Analyst outlook on MSFT stock

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts have also expressed their views on MSFT in light of the new litigation. In a Nov. 29 note, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives dismissed the potential impact of the antitrust investigation on the stock.

He thinks the lawsuit is unlikely to have any long-term impact and expects it to subside once a new FTC chairman is named in January. Ives expects major tech companies to suffer minor setbacks due to legal challenges, but remains optimistic about the sector’s growth, particularly in AI, through 2025.

Ives maintained an Outperform rating on Microsoft with a $550 target. Derrick Wood, analyst at TD Cowen, also shared this optimistic outlook and maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $475.

RBC Capital, UBS, Daiwa Securities and President Capital have rated Microsoft shares “Buy,” with price targets between $476 and $520.

In summary, despite the antitrust investigation, Microsoft stock remains bullish and analysts are optimistic about its growth. While regulatory challenges may cause short-term volatility, there is potential for the stock to break through the $500 resistance.

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