Moana 2 was supposed to be the death of the direct-to-streaming blockbuster film

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you’ve seen at least one headline on the internet that says, “‘Moana 2’ made a ridiculous amount of money at the box office.” That’s true. However, box office nerds like me have dug much deeper and can tell you that “Moana 2” absolutely broke the Thanksgiving weekend record with a worldwide debut of $386 million over the five-day holiday period from Wednesday to Sunday. As of this writing, the sequel has already grossed more than $405 million worldwide and will soon be one of the top ten biggest films of the year around the world. Not bad for a movie that was originally intended to be a Disney+ TV series, right?

That’s really the big point that needs to be examined here. Disney originally planned to make a Moana sequel that would have premiered directly on Disney+. Let’s forget for a moment that this was supposed to be a show that was likely to hook subscribers for several weeks, not a one-off show. The point is, Disney now has a huge global hit that has turned a popular 2016 animated film into a full-fledged franchise. That certainly bodes well for the live-action “Moana” film coming our way in 2026.

Furthermore, in a rational world, this would mean the death of the major direct-to-streaming film. For years, Hollywood has been chasing the success that Netflix has had with the streaming game. This accelerated after the pandemic began and Disney+ was one of the most successful newcomers to this space. Nevertheless, the advantage of a major theatrical release over a direct-to-streaming title is clear.

There is simply no longer a rational argument for the latter publishing strategy. Admittedly, it’s been clear for some time, but Moana 2 should be the final nail in the coffin.

Let’s turn back the clock a little. “Moana” was released in theaters in 2016 and grossed $686 million at the box office and also won several Oscars. This was at a time before Hollywood was truly obsessed with streaming. Generally, Disney would turn a hit into a franchise with a theatrical sequel. The days of Disneytoon Studios’ direct-to-home media animated Disney sequels have been over for some time now.

Instead, Disney+ launched in 2019. Then the pandemic hit and every studio in the industry rushed to launch a streaming service, believing that cinema was dead and streaming was the only future. Disney has done a damn good job of getting people on board, using Star Wars series like The Mandalorian and Marvel series like WandaVision to lure subscribers. However, even in these situations, the shows seemed to have compromised the cinematic viability of these franchises in some way. Even Disney CEO Bob Iger acknowledged this. “We have Marvel at home” would be one way of looking at it.

Cut to now. Disney+ has almost 159 million subscribers worldwide. The studio has released dozens of major Disney+ exclusives based on popular IPs, as well as originals. But which is the most streamed movie on the service? “Moana.” That’s right! Despite all the investment in original streaming content, a 2016 box office hit is the most-watched film on Disney+. The film’s popularity on the service undoubtedly contributed to the blockbuster opening weekend of “Moana 2,” a film now on track to follow “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($1.33 billion) and “Moana 2.” ($1.33 billion) to become the studio’s third $1 billion box office grosser of 2024. “Inside Out 2” ($1.69 billion), now considered the biggest animated film of all time.

Could Moana 2, either as a movie or a TV show, have contributed to some Disney+ sign-ups? Secure. But it’s really hard to imagine that handing the project directly to the streaming service would have had the same cultural impact. More importantly, it wouldn’t have made Disney nearly as much money. Now, given the estimated production budget of $150 million, Disney stands to make a fortune at the box office alone.

“Moana 2” will continue to do well on VOD, selling a lot of merchandise along with some Blu-rays, even if that market isn’t as big as it used to be. Then, after all of that, the film will be released on Disney+, where it will probably reach huge numbers because the whole world will know that the film exists. Either people are eagerly waiting to see the movie at home, or kids are dying to watch it again (or both). Whatever the case, it will still be a huge hit on Disney+ alongside everything else.

Essentially, the success of “Moana 2” on Disney+ can now be the icing on the cake instead of having to justify the entire company. Does this mean that some sort of “Moana” series wouldn’t make sense? Of course not. Pixar produced “Inside Out 2” and there is also a Disney+ spin-off series coming out called “Dream Productions” that seems suitable for a TV format. On the other hand, so many streaming shows seem like films that have been broken down into episodes. For example, with “Moana 2”, Disney succeeded very convincingly in turning a series into a film.

Even if Moana 2 hadn’t been such a huge success at the box office, it would still have made more sense to go to the cinema than to go straight to streaming. Look at “Encanto,” a film that only grossed $261 million worldwide. But that theatrical release paved the way for the film to later become a monster streaming hit on Disney+. We see time and time again that films released in cinemas do better on VOD and streaming, even if they weren’t real hits in the cinema.

There used to be a feeling that the cinema market might disappear after the pandemic. Since then, theaters have largely recovered from the 2020 lockdowns, so there’s no real reason to hold on to that fear anymore. In fact, in the future, Disney and every other studio in town would be better off spending large sums of money on films that have a chance of doing well at the box office. Publishing such projects directly on streaming is tantamount to burning money. In an increasingly uncertain media landscape, this makes no sense. Take the hits where you can get them.

“Moana 2” is in theaters now.