NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Tyler Herro, Knicks vs. Nets, 76ers vs

Tuesday’s five-game NBA slate features four double-digit spreads, including a 13.5-point spread in the Philadelphia 76ers-Denver Nuggets game in Denver.

Joel Embiid will not be in line to face reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic, and the Sixers’ chances of making the playoffs continue to decline heading into the All-Star break.

Elsewhere in the NBA, the New York Knicks are double-digit favorites for the second night in a row against the Brooklyn Nets, and the Los Angeles Lakers are the clear favorite at 6-35 against the Washington Wizards.

While so many big favorites could make things difficult from a betting perspective – failures could negatively impact the prop market – there are a few games I’m keeping an eye on on Tuesday.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the action in the NBA on January 21st.

Find Peter Deweys NBA betting record here (Futures included). You can also follow my daily pieces on BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cameron Johnson OVER 17.5 points (-125) – 0.5 units

Brooklyn’s Cameron Johnson has taken on a larger role in the offense with Dennis Schroder now at Golden State and Cam Thomas still out of the lineup due to injury.

In the 2024-25 season, Johnson averaged 19.5 points while shooting an efficient 50.0 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from three. He also caused problems for the Knicks, scoring 17 and 22 points in their two meetings despite only taking 10 and 12 shots, respectively, in those games.

Since December 16 (10 games), Johnson has averaged 21.9 points per game on 13.4 field goal attempts, scoring 18 or more points in eight of those games.

I love this matchup for him as the Knicks have struggled to defend the 3-ball lately. New York ranks last in opponents’ 3-point percentage in the last 10 games (44.2 percent!), but allows over 14 made 3s per game.

Johnson should have a big game from beyond the arc – especially if D’Angelo Russell is (questionably) out. The Nets don’t have many other reliable scoring options on their roster.

Tyler Herro OVER 21.5 points (-125) – 0.5 units

Even with Jimmy Butler back in the lineup, Tyler Herro is the Miami Heat’s first option on offense – and for good reason.

Herro is in the midst of his career season, averaging 24.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 47.8 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from 3-point range.

The former Sixth Man of the Year has a real case for the Most Improved Player award this season and is underrated at his current points level – even if Miami is heavily favored against Portland.

First of all, it’s far from guaranteed that the Heat will pull off a blowout win over the Portland Trail Blazers, and Herro torched Portland earlier this month, scoring 32 points on 11 of 22 shooting (7 of 14 from 3). The Blazers rank just 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage this season, allowing more than 13 made 3s per game.

That suits Herro, who has scored 21.5 points in nine of 14 games since Christmas. He averaged 24.3 points per game over that stretch.

Denver Nuggets-New York Knicks Parlay (-127)

A small collection campaign to end this Tuesday list? Here’s how I build a pair of parlays in the same game for the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets:

New York Knicks Moneyline

The Knicks are the heavy favorites on the second night of back-to-back games – a point where they are just 1-4 against the slate this season.

However, New York should be able to handle a struggling Brooklyn team on the road tonight. The Nets enter this game as home underdogs with a lead of 5-8 and average points margin of -10.6 points in these games.

The Nets have regressed since moving Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith, ranking 28th in the NBA in net rating (-12.0) over their last 15 games. Even though the Knicks have struggled defensively recently, they still have a net rating of +2.8 (11th in the NBA) over this period.

With Karl-Anthony Towns returning to the lineup on Monday, the Knicks certainly have a higher ceiling offensively in this matchup – if he plays again.

Brooklyn has not played a home game since December 8th against the Milwaukee Bucks and has lost games 29, 11, 9, 29, 14 and 15 in its last six home games. I’m buying the Knicks on Tuesday night.

Josh Hart 8+ rebounds

Knicks winger Josh Hart has been a rebounding machine this season, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game.

While Hart only had nine boards in each of his last two games, he has collected at least eight boards in 14 of his last 15 games. Additionally, during this 15-game stretch, Hart has had 12 games with 11 or more rebounds, an average of 12.4 per game.

Brooklyn is a favorable matchup as the Nets are 25th in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season. Even if Karl-Anthony Towns returns on Monday, I’m buying Hart’s rebounding prop.

Denver Nuggets Moneyline

Can anyone trust the Philadelphia 76ers right now?

With Embiid out and Paul George, Andre Drummond and Guerschon Yabusele all questionable, the Sixers have too many questions in their rotation for me to support them heading into Tuesday’s road game against the Nuggets.

Denver enters this game with the No. 4 offense in the NBA, a significant advantage over the 76ers and their No. 24 offense. Additionally, Denver has a respectable 7-7-1 record against the team at home as a favorite this season.

The same cannot be said for the Sixers as underdogs on the road. Philly is just 3-9-1 against the spread on the court this season – the second-worst record in the NBA. Additionally, the Sixers have averaged a -11.1 points per game margin in these matchups.

Denver should easily win this matchup as there are no key players listed on the injury report other than Jamal Murray (who is likely). Philadelphia has also only won two of its 13 games on the road all season.

If George sits, I can’t expect Tyrese Maxey to carry this Sixers team on his own on Tuesday.

Nikola Jokic 10+ rebounds

So far this season, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is averaging 13.2 rebounds on 21.9 rebound chances per game.

He now has a great matchup against Philly, with three of his top players (Embiid, Drummond and Yabusele) all on the injury report as of Tuesday night.

Jokic has grabbed 12.5 rebounds (his mainstay tonight) in nine of his last 14 games, averaging 13.5 rebounds per game over that time. Philly also ranks last dead in the NBA in terms of rebounding percentage, so I expect a lot of uncontested boards for the Nuggets star.

I’m happy to reduce the number to 10+ rebonds for The Joker on Tuesday.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.