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NFL Playoff Pictures Week 18: Team-by-Team Guide

A week before the start of the NFL regular season, five teams are competing for the last two open spots. That’s a much clearer playoff picture than last season, when 11 teams were fighting for five spots.

For many teams, last week’s seeding implications are still as important as ever. For example, the loser of the Vikings-Lions game must play away as a wildcard team, while the winner receives a No. 1 seed and a bye.

And some teams’ playoff placement may depend not only on whether they win or lose their own game, but also on the results of other games. The trees below show how the final weekend will affect the seeding results for all remaining participants.

If you want to explore all possible outcomes in more detail, our interactive playoff simulator allows you to set the outcome of any game and see how that changes each team’s playoff probabilities.

(A note: The trees show scenarios that include draws, but in the following discussions we assume there will be no draws.)

AFC East

Buffalo Bills 13-3

Remaining game
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    #2 seeds

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    #2 seeds

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    #2 seeds

Scroll down if you want something more interesting. The Bills will be the No. 2 seed. They play against the lowest seeded AFC wild card team.

Possible opponents placed as number 2: Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins 8-8

Remaining game
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    #7 Seeds

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    Out of

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    Out of

With two straight wins, the Dolphins have stayed alive in the playoff hunt. If they win against the 4-12 Jets, all they need is a Denver Broncos loss to the Kansas City Chiefs to advance.

It is uncertain whether Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will play this weekend. It’s also unclear how much Kansas City’s starters will rest this weekend after the Chiefs lock up the top seed.

Opponent if number 7 is seeded: Buffalo Bills

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Remaining game
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    #3 Seeds

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    #5 seeds

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    #3 Seeds

After Baltimore’s Christmas Day win and Pittsburgh’s loss, the Ravens can win the division if they beat the Browns on the road, 3-13. They will win the division even if the Steelers lose to the Bengals.

If the Ravens win the division, they will be the No. 3 seed. If not, they will be number 5.

Possible opponents if number 3 is seeded: Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Opponent if number 5 is seeded: Houston Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

Remaining game
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    #3 Seeds

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    #6 seeds

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    #5 seeds

The Steelers lost control of the AFC North last week. To reclaim it (and the No. 3 seed), they’ll have to win and hope for a 13-3 Ravens loss to the Browns. It’s far more likely that the Steelers will enter the playoffs as a wild card, either as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.

Opponent if number 3 is seeded: Los Angeles Chargers

Opponent if number 5 is seeded: Houston Texans

Opponent if number 6 is seeded: Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals 8-8

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    #7 Seeds

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    Out of

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    Out of

The Bengals are last in line, seeded at No. 7. Not only do they have to win (against the 10-6 Steelers), but they also have to lose to the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. In our simulations, this happens about 15 percent of the time.

Opponent if number 7 is seeded: Buffalo Bills

AFC South

Houston Texans 9-7

Remaining game
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    #4 Seeds

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    #4 Seeds

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    #4 Seeds

The Texans can rest key players this week as their final game against the Tennessee Titans will have no impact on playoff positioning. Houston, as the No. 4 seed, will host a playoff game against the top-seeded wild card team.

Possible opponents ranked number 4: Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs 15-1

Remaining game
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    #1 seeds

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    #1 seeds

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    #1 seeds

The Chiefs secured first place on Christmas Day, giving them several weeks off between important games.

On Sunday they play against the Denver Broncos, who are still in contention. If the Broncos win this game, Cincinnati and Miami will be eliminated from the playoffs.

As seed #1: Bye

Los Angeles Chargers 10-6

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    #5 seeds

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    #6 seeds

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    #6 seeds

With their win over the Patriots last weekend, the Chargers made it into the playoffs. They will most likely enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, but with a win and some luck they could advance to an easier first-round game at No. 5.

Opponent if number 5 is seeded: Houston Texans

Possible opponents if number 6 is seeded: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver Broncos 9-7

Remaining game
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    #7 Seeds

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    Out of

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    #7 Seeds

The Broncos have failed to secure a playoff spot for two weeks in a row. They play the 15-1 Chiefs this weekend, who will likely rest most of their key players. The Broncos can clinch a No. 7 seed if they win, or they can hope for both Cincinnati and Miami to lose.

Opponent if number 7 is seeded: Buffalo Bills

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 13-3

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    #2 seeds

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    #2 seeds

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    #2 seeds

With their win over Dallas this past weekend, the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed in the NFC

Possible opponents placed as number 2: Green Bay Packers, Washington Commanders

Washington commanders 11-5

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    #6 seeds

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    #7 Seeds

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    #6 seeds

With their dramatic overtime win against Atlanta last weekend, the Commanders secured a spot in the playoffs. A win against Dallas would be a good way to secure a better matchup in the first playoff game.

Possible opponents if number 6 is seeded: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams

Opponent if number 7 is seeded: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North

Detroit Lions 14-2

Remaining game
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    #1 seeds

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    #5 seeds

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    #1 seeds

Sunday night’s game between the Lions and Vikings will determine who wins the NFC North and the top seed. The loser drops to No. 5 and becomes the first team with 13 wins since 1999 to settle for a wild card.

If #1 seeds: Bye

Possible opponents if number 5 is seeded: Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons

Minnesota Vikings 14-2

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    #1 seeds

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    #5 seeds

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    #5 seeds

The Vikings win first place if they beat the Lions, but drop to fifth place if they lose.

If #1 seeds: Bye

Possible opponents if number 5 is seeded: Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers 11-5

Remaining game
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    #6 seeds

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    #7 Seeds

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    #7 Seeds

The 11-5 Green Bay Packers will be a No. 6 or No. 7 seed. They would lose the seeding tiebreaker to the Commanders. So to secure the No. 6 seed, they have to win while the Commanders lose.

Possible opponents if number 6 is seeded: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams

Opponent if number 7 is seeded: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

Remaining game
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    #3 Seeds

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    Out of

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    #4 Seeds

Last weekend was a good one for Tampa Bay, with a win and a loss for the Falcons against the Commanders. Although the Bucs would lose to Atlanta in the tiebreaker, they are one game ahead in the NFC South. So to win the division they just need to win their last game or else the Falcons will lose again.

You can enter the playoffs as a number 3 or number 4 seed. If they don’t win the division, they won’t have a wildcard spot.

Possible opponents if number 3 is seeded: Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers

Possible opponents if number 4 is seeded: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions

Atlanta Falcons 8-8

Remaining game
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    #4 Seeds

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    Out of

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    Out of

The Falcons’ overtime loss to the Commanders last weekend could cost them a playoff spot. Although they play the 4-12 Panthers this weekend, the Buccaneers play the 5-11 Saints and can knock out Atlanta if they win.

In our simulations, the hawks sneak in about 17 percent of the time.

Possible opponents if number 4 is seeded: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams 10-6

Remaining game
  • Best result

    #3 Seeds

  • Worst result

    #4 Seeds

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    #3 Seeds

The Rams started the season 1-4 but have secured a spot in the playoffs with a week to go.

If they win this weekend they will be the No. 3 seed. If they lose, they could still capture the No. 3 seed, but would most likely drop to No. 4.

Possible opponents if number 3 is seeded: Washington Commanders, Green Bay Packers

Possible opponents if number 4 is seeded: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions

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