NHL Betting Preview (December 17): Sabers vs. Canadiens odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he covers Tuesday’s game between the Buffalo Sabers and Montreal Canadiens.

Sabers vs Canadiens odds

• Buffalo Sabers money line: -125
• Montreal Canadiens money line: +105
• Puck line: Sabers -1.5 (+195), Canadiens +1.5 (-250)
• Total game: 6 (over -115, under -105)

Match odds via Sports Interaction.

Sabers handicap (11-20 SU, 15-16 ATS, 15-11-5 O/U)

Buffalo is reeling after losing its 10th straight game on Sunday, but the betting market still favors the Sabers over the Canadiens, who trail them by just one point in the standings. While Buffalo has won four of their last five trips to Montreal, the Sabers have also lost five of their last eight meetings against the Canadiens. It’s not like Buffalo is strong on the road either – the Sabers are just 5-7 on the road this season.

According to Evolving Hockey, Buffalo ranks 30th in goals scored and 31st in goals conceded per 60 minutes over the last 10 games. The Sabers also rank 26th in even-strength expected goals rate, with only four teams allowing more shot attempts. Special teams has also been a problem, particularly in the last ten games. Buffalo’s power play has converted just 14.6 percent of its chances this season, and it’s been even colder lately at just 7.7 percent.

The penalty kill hasn’t fared much better, with the Sabers ranked among the bottom ten teams during their recent lull. However, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen wasn’t bad. He’s had some poor performances, but overall the Sabers’ starter has given his team a better chance to win than his record suggests. However, Luukkonen has been more prone to poor starts over the last month, ranking 60th out of 75 goalkeepers in goals saved above expectations. To make matters worse, Rasmus Dahlin has missed the last six games due to back spasms.

Canadiens Handicap (11-19 SU, 14-16 ATS, 15-13-2 O/U)

Things don’t look so bleak for Montreal, but the Canadiens are also looking to bounce back after losing their last two games. They lost 9-2 at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins and then lost 4-2 on the road to the Winnipeg Jets. Montreal is facing a difficult stretch, playing 10 of its next 14 games on the road, so things could get ugly. However, the Sabers and Red Wings are the only opponents before the holiday break, giving Montreal a good chance to get back on track.

Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 30 points, including 11 goals, in 30 games. Cole Caufield is the team’s top scorer with 17 goals in 30 games. However, aside from Suzuki and Caufield, only Patrik Laine has performed like a top-six forward – and he has only played six games. Juraj Slafkovsky, Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook continue to struggle, and until they figure it out, Montreal will have a hard time winning games.

Last month, the Canadiens ranked in the bottom ten offensively and bottom five defensively at five-on-five ratios. Montreal is also 22nd in expected goals rate, which isn’t great, but still better than Buffalo. In goal, Sam Montembeault was a bright spot despite his difficult performance against Pittsburgh. In his last 10 games, Montembeault has kept goals above expectations by nearly six, meaning he is among the top ten goaltenders in that category.

Best bets for Sabers vs. Canadiens

• Nick Suzuki Anytime Goal (+250) at Sports Interaction
• Nick Suzuki 2+ shots on goal (-111) at BetVictor

Suzuki doesn’t shoot the puck nearly as often as Caufield or Laine, but he has scored just as many expected goals and scored just as many goals over the last 15 games. Suzuki scored two goals against the Sabers on Nov. 11 and has registered three or more shots on goal in seven of his last 10 games against Buffalo. Considering how much the Sabers have struggled to prevent shots and goals, this is a good matchup to help Suzuki get shots and hopefully a goal. Although I believe it makes sense to bet on the captain to take more than two shots on goal at odds of -111, you can also bet on him to take more than three shots on goal at odds of +160 at a sportsbook . So shop around.

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