On the Rocks: How the EU can keep Georgia’s European future alive

problem

Protesters flooded the streets of Georgia after the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party halted the country’s accession to the European Union. The announcement came hours after the European Parliament passed a resolution calling for a new election under international observation and sanctions against Georgian officials. This follows the EU freezing Georgia’s accession and financial support in June after the government passed a law similar to Russia’s “foreign agent” law, requiring organizations with more than 20 percent foreign ownership to identify themselves as “the “pursuing the interests of a foreign power” to be registered. But Brussels’ attempts to reverse Georgia’s decline towards Moscow are clearly failing.

Instead, the DG made clear with its announcement yesterday that it will pursue its own agenda – one that could become more aggressive and cut remaining ties with the West, weakening the EU’s influence in the region. It will not make concessions or give in to international pressure over election irregularities, will not restore democracy and will not repeal Kremlin-like laws.

Solution

The EU must not give up on Georgia. Given the government’s control over police, power structures and potential Russian support, the likelihood of failure is high. Therefore, a two-pronged approach to addressing the crisis is essential.

To show support for the protesters and maintain the momentum of democratic resistance, the EU should hold high-level statements and visits and coordinate closely with pro-EU President Salome Zurabishvili. It should also stick to its position of calling for new elections, as this represents the only viable path to stability. Furthermore, the EU should offer pro-EU bureaucrats the opportunity to play a role in de-escalating the situation to ensure that they see an alternative to the DG’s repression and isolation of Georgia.

To maintain pressure on the DG-led government, Member States should urgently impose sanctions on officials and political leaders responsible for electoral fraud and human rights violations, including the use of force against peaceful protesters. These sanctions should extend to Bidzina Ivanishvili, the architect of GD policy and a key figure in Georgia’s democratic decline. This would send a strong signal to the government officials implementing the DG policies and give them the opportunity to oppose them by joining the officials who are already distancing themselves from the DG agenda.

context

Since the October 26 elections, Georgian demonstrators have refused to give up their fight, denouncing the GD’s undemocratic stance and endangering their European future. For the first time, MPs and diplomatic staff are also protesting against this decision. Over 100 State Department officials have signed a letter expressing their opposition to the government’s decision, saying it contradicts Georgia’s strategic goals and its constitutional commitment to EU and NATO integration.

The government is likely to increase its pressure on civil society and implement the “foreign agents” law and the “family values” law. If violence on the streets continues, Russia could step up its hybrid warfare to deter further resistance to the government. If Georgia falls further under Russian influence, this could lead to further destabilization in Armenia and Moldova, leaving the EU with less influence to effect change and defend its interests in the region.