Opinion | Can Rahm Emanuel flip the script again?

There are rumors that Rahm Emanuel — former adviser to Bill Clinton, former congressman from Illinois, former chief of staff to President Barack Obama, former mayor of Chicago — may become the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee. The progressive left despises his pragmatism and liberal centrism. He has a reputation for being aggressive. And his current job as ambassador to Japan traditionally serves as a post for high-ranking former politicians such as Walter Mondale and Howard Baker.

But he also has a gift for building successful coalitions with difficult, unexpected partners.

More on that in a moment. When I meet him for breakfast in a New York hotel this week, he wants to talk about a looming crisis in Asia. “What began as two wars in two theaters is now one war in two separate theaters,” he says of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. “We need to make sure it doesn’t become a third theater.”

How quickly could this happen? I mention 2027, a year often seen as China’s target date for reunification with Taiwan, by force if necessary.

“I think it’s actually 2025,” he replies.

What Emanuel has in mind are Asia’s other trouble spots, including along the 38th parallel that separates North and South Korea, where Russia is “nudging” Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, to “do something,” and where South Korea’s president briefly declared martial law, and also in the South China Sea, where China and the Philippines are at loggerheads over Beijing’s illegal maritime claims. Unlike Taipei, where America’s commitments are deliberately ambiguous, our defense commitments to Manila and Seoul are ironclad.

This could mean war for the United States on several unexpected fronts. Emanuel’s tenure as ambassador was distinguished by his role in preparing two historic rapprochements – last year between Japan and South Korea and this year between Japan and the Philippines – which, together with the AUKUS defense pact with Britain and Australia, are part of a comprehensive diplomatic cooperation Biden administration efforts to contain China.

The Chinese, says Emanuel, “have a theory about the Indo-Pacific fall. We have a theory on this case. Their attempt is to isolate Australia and the Philippines and put all pressure on that country – often through abusive trade practices. “Our job is to flip the script and isolate China through their actions.”