Present and Responsible: The narrow majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives could make attendance a priority

It has long been said that Congress is much like a school.

What’s the first thing they do at school? Be present.

That’s one thing they normally don’t do it in Congress.

But maybe next year.

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Figuring out who is in and in charge and who is out will be one of the most dramatic daily events on Capitol Hill.

It’s always about math on Capitol Hill.

But the 119th Congress will Really it’s about the mathematics.

Every day in the House will depend on who is sick. Who has a parent-teacher conference? His plane was delayed due to snow. Who only plays hooker and is not reliable. Who was giving a speech downtown, got stuck in traffic and just couldn’t make it back in time. Whose child is playing the lead role in the school play? Whose aunt died?

President Trump and House Republicans have big plans for their 2025 legislative agenda. But the tiny size of the GOP majority could dampen those expectations any day.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaks during a press conference alongside other Republican leaders in the House of Representatives at the US Capitol on November 19, 2024 in Washington DC, USA. (Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

It will be interesting to see what the Republicans can implement.

Republicans are likely to start the new year with a 219-215 majority. So 434 seats. There is a vacancy because former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned. That’s a four-seat lead. But in reality, this means that the GOP majority can only tolerate one Republican defector on any roll call vote without needing help from the other side. A Republican “no” vote is 218-216. But two Republican rebels result in a 217-217 tie. As a rule, relations in the House of Representatives lose.

But the start of the new Congress on January 3 could mark Halycon Days for the House Republican Conference.

Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., plan to resign in January to join the Trump administration. Stefanik is running for the position of ambassador to the United Nations and needs confirmation for this position. The president-elect appointed Waltz as national security adviser. This position does not require Senate confirmation. The Republican majority will therefore shrink to 217 to 215. At this point, Republicans cannot lose votes to pass their agenda.

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That’s a problem for House Republicans, who have regularly had a slew of defections, from keeping the government open to impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This could even spell trouble for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who returns to the speaker’s suite. Johnson must win an absolute majority of all voting members of the House of Representatives when the new Congress meets on January 3 to become speaker. He will have a small cushion when the new Congress begins. But it won’t be much. House Republicans are still suffering from political post-traumatic stress disorder after the 15-round election of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., early last year.

Yes. There will be special elections to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has already scheduled a special election for the Gaetz seat for April 1.

You can’t make this up.

U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) waves on stage during the third day of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

The other special elections are still months away because Stefanik and Waltz have not yet resigned. If Stefanik is confirmed and resigns at the end of January, it could actually be May before a special election for her seat occurs – based on New York law and the discretion of New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).

The results in special elections sometimes produce “special” results. The usual electorate periodically stays at home and the opposing party captures these seats in off-cycle elections. So even if these are “Republican” seats, there is no guarantee that Republicans will automatically win.

But if all goes according to plan, Republicans will win back those seats in a few months with a comparatively strong majority of 220-215. That means Republicans could lose by up to two votes on any major issue.

But there are always failures. Always resignations.

And this isn’t just limited to the Republican side of the ballot.

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There have long been concerns about the health and attendance of 79-year-old Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. Scott was criticized earlier this year for a lack of public appearances and interviews.

Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Arizona, 76, is the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva vowed that this term would be his last after he was diagnosed with cancer. The illness put Grijalva out of action for months. He missed more than 300 roll-call votes and did not conduct interviews between February and this fall.

The late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Bill Pascrell, D-N.J. and Donald Payne Jr., DN.J., were all in office when they died this year. The late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died in 2023.

Democrats are currently making a lot of noise about President-elect Trump’s agenda. It is incumbent on Democrats to be fully present to oppose Republicans and generally make life difficult for the majority. But the Democrats can only do that if they show up. All the time.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., holds his weekly press conference at the Capitol Visitor Center on Thursday, May 23, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

That was the case when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., commanded the votes of every House Democrat in every roll call for speaker in January and October of last year. Only Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed a few votes because he had surgery. But later that evening, Trone returned to Capitol Hill to vote.

Rep. Al Green, D-Tex., was hospitalized last February. But Green came to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February to help torpedo the initial attempt to impeach Mayorkas. The Republicans had three defectors on their side. The election of the Green Party, fresh off the stretcher, forced the Republican Party to fail on the ground and try again.

One factor that posed a challenge for Republicans was the health of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was diagnosed with cancer last year and was ruled out for the first part of 2023. Scalise has since recovered. But his absence has paralyzed the GOP on big votes like the first impeachment of Mayorkas.

Unfortunately – and inevitably – there are health-related absences. And God forbid death. A congress rarely passes without the death of a representative – sometimes unforeseen. The late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides died in a traffic accident in the summer of 2022.

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So watch for attendance bells ringing in the House of Representatives next year. Check the weather forecast and flight schedule at Reagan National Airport. Better check out Waze when they fly to Dulles. See if the flu or another round of COVID hits Congress.

Yes. In Congress, it is always important to understand whether someone is for or against a particular bill or amendment. But what replaces that is the question of whether they actually exist.