Researchers envision an ice-free Arctic, and it could happen much sooner

A new forecast from climatologists suggests the Arctic Ocean could see its first ice-free day as early as summer 2027, with some models predicting that could happen within the next three years under certain conditions. According to HuffPost Spain, researchers have found that the first ice-free day in the Arctic is already inevitable, regardless of current greenhouse gas emissions. Forecasts suggest it could occur within the next 20 years and, under certain conditions, as soon as three years.

Researchers Céline Heuzé of the University of Gothenburg and Alexandra Jahn of the University of Colorado Boulder ran over 300 computer simulations to predict when that first ice-free day might occur, Phys.org reports. To predict this event, they used computer models for the first time. Their study, published in the journal Nature Communications, suggests that the rapid acceleration of sea ice loss in the Arctic could lead to an ice-free day by the end of summer, a worrying signal given previous expectations for around 2030.

Melting Arctic ice has serious implications for sea level rise and the Arctic’s role as a regulator of Earth’s climate, with ice-free Arctic conditions potentially becoming more common in the coming years. The term “ice-free” is scientifically defined as when the Arctic ice extent falls below one million square kilometers, a definition established by polar researchers. The Arctic has a total area of more than 16 million square kilometers.

According to Nature, since satellite measurements began in 1978, it has been known that the Arctic region is losing almost 80,000 square kilometers of ice annually, which is equivalent to the landmass of the US state of Maine. Arctic sea ice is melting at an unprecedented rate of more than 12% per decade, with the trend clear over a decade on average, Phys.org reports.

The minimum fixed extent of Arctic ice measured this year was 4.28 million square kilometers, marking one of the lowest values since 1978, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported. This represents a significant decrease from the average coverage of 6.85 million square kilometers between 1979 and 1992.

“The first day without ice in the Arctic will not radically change things, but it will show that by emitting greenhouse gases we have changed one of the defining features of the Arctic’s natural environment,” Jahn explained in a press release. The researchers simulated the evolution of Arctic sea ice starting from the minimum extent of 3.30 million square kilometers in 2023 and the transition to daily ice-free conditions within a few years.

They found that the first ice-free day in the simulations lasts between one day and 71 days, with an average length of 25 days and a standard deviation of 17 days, as noted by Nature. But there is good news: Drastic reductions in emissions could delay the timeline for an ice-free Arctic and shorten the time the ocean remains ice-free.

“Any reduction in emissions would help preserve sea ice,” Jahn said, and would delay the billing even if it couldn’t be stopped.

The open sea near the poles leads to more erratic wind patterns and extreme weather events, both hot and cold, impacting populated regions worldwide, La Vanguardia reports. Sea ice protects the Arctic from warming by reflecting incoming sunlight back into space, while seawater absorbs sunlight, leading to increased heat accumulation in the summer months, according to Phys.org.

In summer, when the sun never sets in the Arctic, due to the lack of reflective ice, significantly more heat is collected, which is then distributed across the planet, exacerbating global warming. According to IFLScience, few people will like the consequences of ice-free Arctic summers, apart from the shipping companies that want to finally use the Northwest Passage.

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Although it might come sooner than we thought, “an ice-free Arctic within three years, the fastest transition we found in the simulations, is very, very unlikely,” Jahn noted.

Nature, Marca, IFLScience, El Pais and El Correo, among others, reported on the research.

This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq

Researchers envision an ice-free Arctic, and it could happen much sooner

ByAmelia Journalton

By Amelia Journalton

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