Romania’s far-right party expects gains in parliamentary election By Reuters

By Luiza Ilie

BUCHAREST (Reuters) – Romanians will take part in a parliamentary election on Sunday in which the far right is expected to benefit from uncertainty over whether the surprise result of a presidential election will stand.

Just days after far-right politician Calin Georgescu won the most votes in the first round of the presidential election, an opinion poll this week showed the far-right Alliance to Unify Romanians (AUR) with a narrow lead over the ruling Social Democrats.

Gains by far-right groups in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, after a campaign dominated by voters’ concerns about budget problems and the cost of living, could upend Romania’s pro-Western orientation and undermine support for Ukraine, political analysts say.

“People who quietly voted for Georgescu are not aware that we are essentially talking about a complete change of course,” said political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu.

Romania is a member of the European Union and NATO.

Georgescu’s unexpected victory last Sunday raised suspicions of meddling in the election campaign, triggered a vote recount and led to a losing candidate asking the country’s highest court for a repeat of the first round of voting.

The confusion means the general election is taking place and voters are uncertain whether the results of the first round of presidential voting will stand.

They also do not know whether the runoff election scheduled for December 8th between Georgescu and the moderate Elena Lasconi will take place or will take place at a later date.

The Constitutional Court examined the situation on Friday, but decided to postpone the decision to cancel the first round until Monday.

Georgescu ran as an independent and challenged established mainstream parties, but political analysts say far-right parties are likely to benefit from the uncertainty.

“The net beneficiaries … are Georgescu and the anti-establishment camp, which now receives additional ammunition: how state institutions work, how discretionary they are,” said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babeș-Bolyai University.

An AtlasIntel opinion poll conducted November 26-28 showed the far-right AUR at 22.4%, while Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s Social Democrats are at 21.4%, a decline of 10 percentage points within of two weeks, and Lasconi’s Union “Save Romania” at 17.5%. The recount was not taken into account in the poll.

HOUSEHOLD, JOBS AND INVESTMENTS

Georgescu, 62, criticized NATO and Romania’s stance towards Ukraine and said Bucharest should deal with Russia and not challenge it. Opinion polls had not predicted his success.

AUR has 8.5% of the seats in the current legislative period, and two right-wing extremist splinter parties could also enter parliament.

Ciolacu came third in the first round of the presidential election, reflecting voters’ dissatisfaction with his government after he campaigned on promises of stability as the war in Ukraine continues.

The next government will face the difficult task of reducing the budget deficit, which is the highest in the EU at 8% of economic output. As Donald Trump’s US presidency begins, the country will also come under pressure to meet its defense spending targets.

Romania has the largest proportion of the population at risk of poverty in the EU and large parts of the country need investment.

“We have an unevenly developed country and the greatest frustrations are concentrated in these peripheral areas, which fall prey to candidates who know how to deal with them,” said anthropologist Bogdan Iancu.

In cities like Victoria, in the shadow of the Fagaras Mountains in the Southern Carpathians, the promise of jobs is vital. In the three decades since a communist-era chemical plant was massively downsized, the city’s population has halved to 6,400 and hundreds of residents face long commutes to work.

“First, I will vote for factories to come here. So that we have a job,” said Mihai Coroianu, 52, as he shoveled snow in the city’s main square.

The city’s mayor, Camelia Bertea, has secured 31 million euros ($33 million) in EU funding for local projects over three years, including the reopening of the local hospital, equivalent to Victoria’s 31-year budget.

The government has also secured investments from the German defense group Rheinmetall (ETR:) wants to build a gunpowder plant near Victoria by 2027 and create hundreds of jobs.

“The future of a small town without financial prospects can only be EU funds,” said Bertea.

($1 = 0.9478 euros)