Senators vs. Bruins prediction, tips and odds for today’s NHL game

The Ottawa Senators have defeated the Boston Bruins in each of their first two meetings this season, and the Atlantic Division rivals will take the ice again at TD Garden on Thursday, January 23rd.

With Boston reeling at 3-6-2 and Ottawa waiting for more puck luck, my Senators vs. Bruins predictions and NHL picks have the Sens winning again tonight in Beantown.

Senators vs Bruins Prediction

My senators vote
Senators moneyline (-123 at Pinnacle)

My senator analysis
The Ottawa Senators defeated the Boston Bruins 6-5 in a shootout on Saturday, and it was the Sens who finished the game with a 63.0 Corsi For percentage and 64.8 Expected Goals percentage 5-on-5 and 48 total shots to Boston’s 28 dominated.

Ottawa has been solid in the underlying metrics at 5-on-5 all season and has continued the trend coming out of the holiday break with a ninth-place 52.1 CF% and a mediocre 51.5 xGF%. The problem for the Sens during the 6-5-2 run was a league-low shooting percentage of 4.9 at 5-on-5.

Boston is the perfect opponent for more puck luck as the Bruins are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set and both No. 1 Jeremy Swayman and Joonas Korpisalo saw time in Wednesday’s 5-1 loss to the Devils.

Additionally, Boston has been the complete opposite of Ottawa since the holiday break.

The Bruins have a 27th-ranked 45.4 CF% and 29th-ranked 43.6 xGF% at 5-on-5, but have been helped by tremendous puck luck, bolstered by their fifth-ranked PDO of 102.0. saved. Specifically, allowing the third-highest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (3.08) while also having the team’s 10th-highest save percentage (.922) is untenable.

Of course, the Bruins will also be without their No. 1 defenseman. The loss of Charlie McAvoy (upper body) is significant. He plays a team-high 23:41 per night in all situations, and Boston has been without top-four star Hampus Lindholm (lower body) since mid-November.

Ottawa picks up its third straight win against Boston tonight.

Odds analysis Senators vs. Bruins

There has been action on the Ottawa side of that money line, with Pinnacle taking the number from Sens -115 at the open to -123 on Thursday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was additional help from Ottawa due to Boston’s starting goaltender.

Both teams are trending toward the under, consistent with the Ottawa team’s highlighted poor shooting percentage and the Bruins’ excellent goaltending. Pinnacle saw a small move towards sub-5.5, with the shop opening at -103 below 5.5 and rising to -109 as of Thursday morning.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Senators vs Bruins odds

Senators vs Bruins live odds

Opening odds for Senators vs. Bruins

• Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+220) | Boston +1.5 (-264)
• Money line: Ottawa -115 | Boston +103
• Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Below 5.5

Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.

Senators vs. Bruins trend.

The Senators have conceded the under in 34 of their last 49 road games (+21.25 units / 40% ROI), and the Bruins have conceded the under in 29 of their last 50 home games (+8.90 units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Bruins.

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