Should the Celtics change their starting lineup?

The Boston Celtics are in the midst of a troubling 7-6 stretch. One of the more interesting developments this season has been the lack of efficiency from the starting XI. In nine games and 138 minutes, the Celtics’ starting five of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis have an offensive rating of 107.9 and a defensive rating of 116.8, for a net rating of -8. 9 corresponds. Conversely, in 208 minutes with Al Horford in the lineup over Porzingis, the Celtics have a net rating of 21.9, an offensive rating of 122.1 and a defensive rating of 100.2.

These numbers are in stark contrast to last season, when the lineup with Porzingis posted a net rating of 11 (120.3 offensive rating, 109.4 defensive rating) in 623 total minutes. With Al in the lineup for 311 minutes, Boston had a net rating of 2.7 (118.5 offensive rating, 115.8 defensive rating). Additionally, the Celtics have just a 9-7 record with Porzingis, compared to a 43-14 record last year. Given those stats, starting Horford over Porzingis has been a hot topic in Celtics circles. Let’s examine whether Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics should start Horford instead of Porzingis.

Should the Celtics change their starting lineup?

The reason Horford was founded

To be clear, moving Porzingis to the bench should not be viewed as an insult. Porzingis still provides the Celtics with a ton of value on both ends of the court. It is noteworthy that the Celtics were 26th in the rankings of opposing players before Porzingis’ return, but they have been in second place since his return. Porzingis is also part of the Celtics’ most efficient lineup. Additionally, Porzingis has solid averages of 18.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.5 blocks, with a shooting split of 44.5/34.7/84.

Moving Porzingis to the bench is all about balancing Boston’s lineups, and he would still be in the final lineup. It’s difficult to include everyone between the Jays, Porzingis, White and Holiday. This could be a major reason why the Celtics starting lineup is struggling. With Horford in the lineup, the Celtics have two clear off-ball players, Horford and Holiday. Additionally, this would also allow White to play a larger role in the offense. With the Celtics struggling over the last month, it might be time for a change.

Another major issue is the Celtics’ poor bench play. Notably, they rank 26th in bench points and 25th in bench minutes. Aside from Payton Pritchard, the Celtics are clearly lacking in bench scoring and shot creation. Moving Porzingis to the bench would address these deficiencies while creating a devastating bench scoring duo. Ultimately, moving Porzingis off the bench would balance the Celtics’ starting lineup between playmakers and spot-up shooters while also giving their bench a significant offensive boost.

The argument for keeping Porzingis in the starting lineup

There’s also a valid argument for keeping Porzingis in the starting lineup. As already mentioned, the starting eleven only has nine games and 138 minutes under their belt. Simply getting more time on the field could have an impact on the lineup’s stats, especially given their success last season. Porzingis is recovering from a pretty serious injury; Sometimes patience is key. Additionally, this is clearly Boston’s best lineup from a talent and upside perspective. In any scenario, the Celtics would have Porzingis finish games with the starters, so it would make sense for the unit to come together.

From a practical perspective, it is unclear when this step would take place. Four of the Celtics’ six upcoming games will be back-to-back. The Celtics always staggered Porzingis and Al in consecutive games, eliminating the possibility of a lineup change. If the lineup continues to struggle after this stretch, perhaps they could consider moving Porzingis to the bench. However, the timing is not right at the moment.

Another argument against benching Porzingis is that the Celtics’ main problem is finishing games, not starting them. Last month, Boston ranked 23rd in fourth-quarter net rating, compared to 11th on the season, and second in net rating for the season’s first quarter, including last month. Last season, the Celtics ranked first in fourth quarter net rating. Maybe Boston’s problem with having too many mouths is affecting their play in the fourth quarter. However, given the lineup’s success last season, that’s puzzling. The Celtics should use this difficult phase to strengthen their core and build on last season’s success. Although they had success last season, reintegrating Porzingis into the starting lineup can be a challenge, and sometimes it just takes time. As things stand, Boston shouldn’t change its starting lineup and give this talented core more time to establish itself.

The last word

Ultimately, the Celtics should continue to have Porzingis in the starting lineup given their upcoming schedule and the lack of playing time Boston’s starting five had together. However, if this lineup continues to struggle, an adjustment may be needed and the starting lineup numbers are certainly concerning. Given the talent, upside and proven success of this roster, Boston needs to prioritize getting the first five other players on the court together. However, if no changes are made to the starting lineup, Mazzulla could change the final lineup more frequently depending on who is doing their best on a given night.