'Silent' COVID surge could hit US this holiday season, experts warn

As the holidays begin and travel peaks, COVID-19 is surging again across the country. However, this year’s winter COVID wave is starting later than usual, and some experts are warning of a possible “silent” increase in transmission during the holidays.

They call it “quiet” because this winter surge follows a long period of unusually low COVID activity this fall, so many people don’t know that COVID levels have risen sharply in the last two weeks, according to the latest wastewater data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

As a result, people may not know that their risk of infection is increasing and may not test if they have only mild symptoms, which can lead to the virus spreading at holiday gatherings, travel and more.

Viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – in wastewater in 21 states was “high” or “very high” as of December 14, according to CDC data.

“There is a good chance that many people will get sick in the next few weeks and not realize it. “Most people don’t track CDC data, so the only way they can know if we’re in a wave is if they’ve gotten sick,” says Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., an associate professor at Tulane University School of Medicine and Public health expert on tracking COVID-19 trends, tells TODAY.com.

While the data does not yet show that the U.S. is in a major COVID surge, the country is entering its tenth COVID wave since the pandemic began, Hoerger adds.

However, there is much uncertainty about how bad this year’s winter surge will be and how long it will last. “This is a very risky time with many people interacting indoors, so we don’t really know how quickly transmission may increase,” Hoerger says.

There is a risk of “silent” transmission over the holidays

Wastewater levels of COVID-19 are lower than they were at this time last winter, but there has been a sharp increase over the past two weeks, according to data from the CDC. And cases will likely continue to rise, experts say.

“As of Friday, December 20, COVID-19 levels in wastewater nationwide are moderate,” says Dr. Jonathan Yoder, deputy director of the CDC’s Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness and Innovation, told TODAY.com. The previous week’s wastewater data was “low” statewide. Values are highest in the Midwest.

“Nationally, COVID-19 levels in wastewater increased during the month of December after a period of low levels in October and November,” Yoder added.

Covid December 2024 — National and regional trends of SARS-COV-2 viral activity levels in wastewaterCDC

The CDC is no longer tracking the total number of new COVID cases in the U.S., but is instead estimating transmission rates using wastewater surveillance, test positivity and emergency room visits.

According to CDC data, COVID test positivity is at 5.6%, an increase of 0.5% from the previous week. Emergency room visits and COVID-related deaths are also slightly increasing.

“The problem with this winter’s wave is that it is very different from previous ones,” explains Hoerger. In past years, COVID has followed a similar pattern: Cases spike in November, increase steadily, and peak around late December or early January.

“Normally people would have warned for about a month by now if they saw friends and family becoming infected,” says Hoerger.

“Transmission has been unusually low for November and so people are being lulled into a false sense of security,” he adds.

According to Hoerger, COVID-19 levels are rising about a month later than usual, putting the country in “uncharted territory.”

“You can think of the start of the wave as a kind of silent transmission period where people aren’t really aware of it, coinciding with the start of holiday travel,” he explains.

Hoerger, director of the Pandemic Mitigation Collective, which uses the COVID-19 prediction model, estimates that as of December 16, one in 64 (1.6%) people in the U.S. are actively infectious and that there are about 750,000 new ones daily Infections, and these are increasing.

This COVID-19 wave is coming late and “out of nowhere,” he wrote on X.

Other experts agree that an increase in the number of infections can be expected in the coming weeks.

“We anticipate that these holiday gatherings, travel and everything that comes with it will present opportunities for a surge in COVID as well as (influenza) and RSV,” says Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told TODAY.com.

“It’s silent (transmission) because most of these infections are quite mild, so people don’t test or dismiss it as a cold,” adds Schaffner.

While this year’s late summer COVID surge gave the U.S. population some immunity, that is likely starting to wane, experts say. And the variants currently circulating, including XEC and the descendants of the FLiRT family, are highly transmissible.

“These current variants cause many milder infections that go largely undetected,” Schaffner says, adding that people with mild or no symptoms can still spread the virus to others.

“The transmissibility of these viruses contributes to a silent epidemic, so to speak,” says Schaffner.

Where COVID is spreading in the US

According to the latest CDC data, COVID viral activity in wastewater is currently “very high” in 5 states and “high” in 16 states. States with the highest COVID wastewater levels as of Dec. 14 include:

Arizona
Arkansas
District of Columbia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wyoming

“If you see increased viral activity in COVID-19 wastewater in your area, that could be an indication that there is a higher risk of infection,” Yoder says.

However, regional differences in wastewater data also depend on the number and specific location of the wastewater monitoring points monitored, says Hoerger. Some states have no data, others have limited coverage. “Take regional differences with caution,” says Hoerger.

Overall, the decline in testing and delays in reporting may make it difficult to accurately track COVID-19 levels, the experts note.

COVID-19 symptoms in 2024

The symptoms caused by the circulating dominant variants XEC and KP.3.1.1 are very similar to those caused by previous Omicron subvariants, experts say.

Common symptoms of COVID-19 include:

Sore throat
traffic jam
Runny nose
Cough
fatigue
Headache and body aches
Fever or chills
shortness of breath
Nausea or loss of appetite
Diarrhea
Loss of sense of taste or smell

Symptoms vary from person to person. Even milder infections can be “distressing” for several days, says Schaffner.

Although the latest COVID-19 variants appear to cause milder illness, they can still lead to severe illness requiring hospitalization. Certain people are at higher risk of developing a serious illness. This includes people over 65, people with previous illnesses and people with weakened immune systems.

Any time a person is infected with COVID, they are at risk of developing a long COVID infection, which can result in symptoms that persist and recur for weeks or months after infection, according to the CDC.

Are new COVID boosters effective?

The updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine is recommended by the CDC for everyone ages 6 months and older.

The new mRNA COVID vaccine is monovalent, meaning it targets one variant – in this case the KP.2 “FLiRT” variant. The strains currently circulating are closely linked to KP.2, and the new booster should provide good protection, TODAY.com previously reported.

However, uptake of the new vaccine has been low so far – only 21% of U.S. adults have received the shot, according to the latest CDC data.

“The best protection is a vaccination. Although vaccinated people sometimes become infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, having COVID-19 vaccines significantly reduces the risk of becoming seriously ill, hospitalized, or dying from COVID-19 Stay tuned,” says Yoder.

How to protect yourself from COVID-19

As the number of COVID-19 infections rises, the CDC says it is important for people to take steps to protect themselves and their families.

You can take the following steps to avoid infection and prevent the spread of COVID-19 to others:

Stay up to date on COVID-19 vaccinations.
Test if you have symptoms or exposure.
Stay home if you are sick.
Seek treatment for COVID-19 if you are at high risk.
Wear a mask.
Practice social distancing.

‘Silent’ COVID surge could hit US this holiday season, experts warn

ByAmelia Journalton

There is a risk of “silent” transmission over the holidays

Where COVID is spreading in the US

COVID-19 symptoms in 2024

Are new COVID boosters effective?

How to protect yourself from COVID-19

By Amelia Journalton

Related Post

Sell the team? McCaskeys will once again fail to give Bears fans what they want most

Cavaliers 126-99 76ers (December 21, 2024) Game Recap

2025 NFL Draft: Best prospects to return to CFB 2025 | News, results, highlights, statistics and rumors

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You missed

Sell the team? McCaskeys will once again fail to give Bears fans what they want most

Cavaliers 126-99 76ers (December 21, 2024) Game Recap

2025 NFL Draft: Best prospects to return to CFB 2025 | News, results, highlights, statistics and rumors

What is one of the Cavs’ surprising secrets to their success? –Terry Pluto