Saturday evening February 15th
The snow and the snow that arrived today burst more than expected. I had called it a high -flyer because the intensity was so pulsed enough to overtake the warm sidewalk and to lead to street strengths and many accidents. In retrospect, I showed snow and snow in earlier days, and the NAM 3 km model did a better job this morning.
I mention this because I will show this model mainly for the next phase of this storm on Sunday.
I understand that there is more interest in the larger snowstorm next week, but I do not want to ignore the effects of this immediate event.
Storm warnings
Blizzard warning:
High Mountains including Garrett County MD.
- Monday from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m.: 4 to 8 inch snow with gusts of wind 55 to 65 miles per hour.
Strong wind warning: 10 a.m. to 10 p.m.
- Central Maryland and Delaware: wind gusts 50 to 60 miles per hour.
High wind clock:
- The districts of Pennsylvania are just waiting for the upgrade of the NWS State College
Set up on Saturday evening
This strong storm was responsible for severe storms and floods over the Tennessee River Valley.
Low Level Jet Stream: 12 p.m. sun until 12 noon Mons
700 MB: 10,000 feet height
The forecast with a low level will be over 100 miles per hour via Central Maryland at 12 noon on Sunday.
12 p.m. Sunday
Virginia and Maryland may cross this low jet at 124 miles per hour. This improves the thunderstorm line and then opens the winds to get closer to the surface when the cold air follows.
Prediction of surface wind: lunch until midnight
Top winds
Radar simulation: 7 a.m. until midnight
Showers can end in the morning with an increase in warm air. This will feed the developing line of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the late morning and in the early afternoon.
The following cold winds will ignite a See -Effect snow event with the winds for the mountains of Western Maryland.
Snapshots
11 a.m.
The showers and thunderstorms will develop.
12 o’clock
Strong line of the heavy rain with thunderstorms, more likely south of Baltimore.
1 p.m.
Storm Line will cross the bay to Delmarva.
14 o’clock
When the striker line reaches the coast, the snow will hold in the mountains.
Colder air flows in and expand to the east overnight to Monday morning.
Polar air arrives
Monday morning
Tuesday morning
Storm forecast: Wednesday morning to Friday morning
This is the ECMWF model run on Saturday morning.
Sturm shift?
There was a shift with the computer models and with 5 days I expect that there will be more. I’m not worried.
What I noticed was that the energy in the jet stream was a little flatter in the rain today.
This still creates a snowstorm … actually a stronger low pressure. But the comparison was about 150 miles father East Thursday morning.
Jet stream shift
The main reason for this opportunity was the jet stream. Here at 18,000 feet, the trough was not so deep in the recent action, so that the storm will still be strong to turn the coast. It is only the upper part of the entire package and what I will look for to see if this is the trend or a blip.
Snow sums?
If you have scanned other pages, you may have withdrawn very high numbers. So I don’t show any snow sums more than 3 days away. What I showed and reserved for special events is a product with the probability of at least 6 inches or snow. As soon as we have reached 50%, I get more self -confidence to show that and I did it.
I still don’t get benign to show a number of snow sums until we have more reliable data. This will not compete on Monday if the actual energy for this storm enters the network. This means via the US air dream for the weather balloons in the northwest of Pacific to get a better sample of what tries to move us to us.
Model tracking
If you look at models, I have to emphasize that I only look at 00z (7 p.m.) and 12Z (7 a.m.) if we are more than 48 hours away from a storm.
The models 06Z and 18Z have no complete data record without standard weather balloon data.
Therefore, there can often be disturbances or flips.
What I am looking for with the next two runs is, if the following applies, trends or for previous furnishing.
We are still 5 days away so that there will always be scope.
Faith in the flakes
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Snow reports this season
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February 11th Snow Report and evaluate my forecast
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January 19th snow report
January 11th snow report
January 6th snow report
Previous snow
November 22nd snow report
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La Nina Advice January 2025
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Repetition of my message about dyslexia
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammar tips and occasionally other disorders. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer disorders that I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found it out at Cornell University in my second year. It didn’t stop me from making my meteorology degree and the AMS -CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region was the first to get me first. One of my professors told me that I had made it so far without knowing and not allowing it to be a crutch. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own correction. The auto -correction complaint about my computer sometimes makes injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in the forecast. Nobody is perfect in predicting the future. All cards and information are correct. The “word -rich” stuff can become sticky. There was no editor who can check my work During writing And to be ready to send it in a current timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me to maintain this website. She took it on to edit typing errors when she is available. That could be after reading this. I accept that and may prove that what you read is really from me … it’s part of my charm. #Fitf
