Sustainable Peace in Sudan: How International Investment and Solidarity Can Help End a “Forgotten War.”

Image: Gum Arabic produced by Sudan Tarig A. Eltom/Wikimedia Commons

This article was first published in The Conversation on November 20, 2024 and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

In recent years, armed conflicts have repeatedly made headlines around the world, but most media coverage has focused on a few wars that have received a lot of attention. These conflicts represent just the tip of the iceberg: more than 50 countries are currently suffering from shocking levels of armed violence, many of which receive little or no public attention. This includes ongoing violence in Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, the Central African Republic and Yemen.

Many of these “forgotten wars” occur in countries with high levels of poverty, significant inter-ethnic inequalities and fragile states. Often these are not sites of major power rivalries – one of the reasons why they are largely “forgotten” by both the media and policymakers around the world. But science has not overlooked them: hundreds of recent studies are examining measures that can make a real difference in such conflicts. As discussed in my new book, The Peace Formula: Voice, Work and GuaranteesThree factors were found to be most important for sustainable peace.

Political representation, economic opportunities and security guarantees

First, a society must guarantee civil liberties and political representation for all, regardless of ethnicity, gender, religion or sexual orientation. Excluded or discriminated against groups are far more likely to form insurgency movements to challenge the state, whereas inclusive, power-sharing institutions are strongly linked to long-term peace and stability.

Second, a productive economy and an educated, healthy population with the means to make a decent living are critical. When opportunities are scarce and large segments of society are impoverished and desperate, they become easier prey for warlords or authoritarian leaders seeking to recruit fighters. Consequently, measures to strengthen education, healthcare and labor market access have a significant impact on peacebuilding.

Third, security guarantees and robust state capacity are essential for implementing effective public policies and reducing the risk of coups or organized crime exploiting power vacuums. When citizens feel safe, state legitimacy is strengthened and political and economic progress is made possible.

The war in Sudan

But even recognizing these factors, the question remains: How can the international community bring about positive change? Imposing regime change from outside usually backfires. However, when a window of reform opens in a country and a well-intentioned government works toward positive change, the international community has an opportunity to help. Significant financial investments following the Marshall Plan model and supporting the capacities of emerging states can have a significant impact. UN peacekeepers have been shown to significantly increase security, particularly for civilians.

These elements can make a crucial difference on the ground. Take the ongoing war in Sudan: After the end of Omar al-Bashir’s autocratic regime in 2019, an opportunity for positive change briefly opened, leading to the initiation of a series of reforms under new Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok. These included raising IMF financing, macroeconomic reforms and eliminating fuel subsidies. Although the reforms aimed to stabilize public finances, they did not bring immediate relief to the economic hardship suffered by large sections of the population, making it difficult to provide sustained and comprehensive support for the government and its reforms. Furthermore, the government never gained full control of security and remained at the mercy of the military.

This period of transition to civilian rule was aborted in the fall of 2021 when a series of coups ushered in a new era of tension and violence. The situation deteriorated further in April 2023, when full-scale war broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, the army’s former paramilitary allies. This power struggle has reportedly killed tens of thousands of people, and there are now more than 14 million displaced people in Sudan or beyond its borders. The war continues with devastating intensity and in recent days there have been reports of mass killings and sexual violence in villages in Al Jazirah state in eastern Sudan.

Protection of members of all ethnic groups

Ending the fighting and finding a political solution are the top priority. Once a ceasefire is achieved, a long-term roadmap for sustainable peace will be critical to ensure that the current humanitarian catastrophe never occurs again. Ensuring a democratic voice for all is critical in any country, but is particularly important in the context of Sudan, which has severe ethnic divisions and a history of ethnic violence, including against the Masalit people and other non-Arab communities in the Darfur region always targeted. The state has a duty to protect the lives and rights of all its residents, and it is crucial to do everything possible to prevent ethnic cleansing.

An economy that creates sufficient jobs is important everywhere, but especially in Sudan, where poverty remains high and not everyone benefits equally from the benefits of natural resources. While fossil fuel extraction poses significant risks of conflict and rent-seeking, both in general and in oil-rich Sudan, a robust economy that extends beyond the sector is critical as it provides important employment opportunities without the same negative side effects Fossil fuel extraction.

Once a future civilian government is formed, the international community can provide significant financial assistance. A report from the International Growth Center highlights major opportunities to produce a wide range of imported goods, including food and textiles, domestically and boost exports.

In terms of exports, Sudan’s geographical location close to Egypt, Ethiopia and the Gulf States is a major advantage. There is significant potential for diversifying exports, such as a range of agricultural commodities and livestock, and value-added activities could be intensified. Sudan is the world’s largest producer of gum arabic, but only accounts for a meager share of the value chain. With more processing activities, a larger share of this market could be secured.

There must also be strong security guarantees that allow a civilian government to implement reforms and build state capacity without the risk of a military coup. UN peacekeepers could not only protect a civilian government from military takeover, but also help protect all civilians, regardless of ethnicity. A key challenge for the United Nations is, of course, to maintain sufficiently large contingents of peacekeepers from member states. This underlines the paramount importance of international solidarity.

Foundations for peace

If there is a roadmap to pacify forgotten wars, why hasn’t it been followed more often? One problem is that many politicians prioritize short-term goals. Making an untenable deal with a despot or winning the favor of an important but unsavory regime may seem tempting to politicians, especially before an election campaign. It has been argued that al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for decades, was only able to cling to power thanks to foreign support.

In contrast, investing significant resources to lay the foundation for long-term peace in a country far from the limelight may be viewed as politically less advantageous. The full benefits of, for example, school building or improving the health system only become apparent after some time. While some leaders truly care about doing good, many are more focused on doing good. To change this dynamic, monitoring by local and global civil society and public opinion is essential to realign the incentives of our leaders and shift their focus from short-term gains to sustainable peace foundations. Independent, quality media and engaged citizens can serve as catalysts for such positive change.

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Dominic Rohner is Professor of Economics and André Hoffman Chair in Political Economy and Governance at the Geneva Graduate Institute, Graduate Institute – Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement (IHEID).