Swing state? Is New Jersey really turning red? Let’s break down the facts

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New Jersey, a state long synonymous with blue-leaning politics, has become the center of rumors suggesting it could swing toward the Republican Party. But is this speculation actually justified? Let’s take a look at the numbers, recent elections and political trends to see if the Garden State is truly ripe for a Republican Party takeover.

A state of democratic dominance

First, the cold, hard statistics. When it comes to voter registration, the Democrats are far ahead, with around 2.6 million registered Democrats compared to 1.5 million Republicans. That’s a difference of over a million voters – no small gap to overcome. Independents (or “independent” voters), while outnumbering Republicans, tend to lean left in statewide elections, tipping the scales even further against the Republican Party.

Ciattarelli’s 2021 run: A glimmer of red?

Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s relatively narrow loss to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021 raised Republican hopes. Murphy won by just over three percentage points — a surprisingly close race for a state where Democrats have such a large lead in voter registration.

The race was not without controversy. Murphy’s pandemic-era policies, including school closures, mask mandates and vaccination mandates, fueled Republican enthusiasm. Ciattarelli managed to mobilize rural and suburban areas, but this was not enough to overcome Murphy’s dominance in urban centers.

A near miss, yes. A sign of a Republican resurgence? That’s harder to argue.

Trump Bump or Trump Slump?

The polarizing presence of Donald Trump looms large in any conversation about the Republican Party. But New Jersey has never been friendly to Trump. He lost the state to Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020 and to Hillary Clinton by 14 points in 2016.

While Trump enjoys solid support in the state’s conservative circles – particularly in the Jersey Shore – his policies are failing to resonate with suburban and urban voters, who make up a significant portion of the state’s electorate.

Andy Kim’s 2022 win: More blue than purple

In 2024, Democratic Congressman Andy Kim suffered a 10-point loss to openly gay Republican Curtis Bashaw. Kim’s latest congressional victory highlighted how difficult it is for Republicans to flip even districts that lean purple, let alone the entire state he easily swept this year.

Kim’s victory also underscores another important point: New Jersey Democrats have succeeded in defining their Republican opponents as too extreme, a message that resonates with the state’s more moderate voters.

The 2023 setback for the Republicans

If there were any doubts about the GOP’s struggles in New Jersey, the 2023 state elections have put them to rest. Republicans lost seats in both the state Senate and House, even as they hoped to capitalize on national discontent with Democrats.

Three Republicans in Congress – and that’s it

New Jersey sends 12 representatives to Congress, but only three of them are Republicans. These GOP strongholds — largely in the conservative areas of the Jersey Shore and the Northwest — underscore the deeply rooted blue bias of the state’s other regions. Even in a “red wave” year like 2022, the GOP made no significant gains.

For New Jersey Republicans to turn red, they would have to do more than just win over independents — they would have to win over large swaths of Democratic voters in urban and suburban areas. Given current trends and demographics, this seems unlikely.

For 2025, Republicans have far-right conservative Bil Spadea, who could win a primary but will likely fall in the general election in an extremely blue state. There will be no Trump boom to help him. Trump will be a year into his second term and the left will be organized to not lose New Jersey to people like Bill Spadea.

Jack Ciattarelli probably has the best chance of winning New Jersey in a general election. He’s a moderate, if not a left-leaning Republican from New Jersey. He has done enough for Trump to criticize and support the left’s diversity agenda and immigration agenda to gain some street credibility with moderate Democrats upset with the far left.

John Bramnick is probably just an attempt by the Spadea team to split the Ciattarelli vote. Although he is a funny stand-up comedian, this is not a comedy hour and he has no mainstream name recognition outside of New Jersey’s political bubble.

Ed the Trucker, like Spadea, is too far right to win the general, although he did knock out state senator Steve Sweeney, who was asleep at the wheel, to give Ed a seat at the table. He lost his bid for re-election after Democrats woke up and realized what had happened.

The conclusion

The idea of ​​New Jersey becoming a swing state — or even a Republican trend — makes for an interesting headline, but the numbers tell a different story. While Republicans have had isolated successes and near-misses, the overall picture remains clear: New Jersey is still solidly blue, and turning it red will take nothing short of a political earthquake.