Texas State vs. South Alabama Prediction: Jordan McCloud goes out

The Texas State Bobcats and South Alabama Jaguars have met nine times, with neither team winning back-to-back series. Each game provided plenty of excitement, with all but one exceeding the total score of 50. Will the Bobcats finally break the streak of consecutive wins, or will the Jaguars post 7+ wins for the third straight year?

In our Texas State vs. South Alabama prediction, we dive deep into this intriguing matchup and provide key betting insights to help you make smarter, safer decisions.

Texas State vs. South Alabama betting preview

All Texas State vs. South Alabama Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Friday, November 29, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  South Alabama -2
• Spread
  State of Texas -1.5
• Money line
  Texas State -115, South Alabama -105
• Over/Under
  61 points
• Playtime
  3:30 p.m. ET, Friday, November 29th
• Location
  Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, Ala.
• Predicted weather at Kick
  54 degrees, 11 mph wind, mostly sunny
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN+

The Jaguars are 2-1 as underdogs this year and face the same role in Week 14 as the Bobcats have been the favorite in every game this season. However, Texas State is just 5-6 ATS in 2024.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

Although six of South Alabama’s last eight games have been under the total, four of Texas State’s last five games and five of the last six Bobcats-Jaguars meetings have featured an over.

Texas State Winning Probability

It’s only the second year of the GJ Kinne era, but the head coach has already signed a new seven-year contract with the Bobcats. After leading the program to an 8-5 season and a bowl victory last year, Kinne’s team is now 6-5 with another bowl game on the horizon. Still, he won’t take the Jaguars team lightly – especially after last season’s 52-44 shootout that pushed the Bobcats to their limits.

South Alabama’s probability of winning

After a successful stint as OC and QB coach under Kane Wommack, Major Applewhite assumed the role of head coach when Wommack moved to the Alabama Crimson Tide to take over the OC position. Applewhite kept the momentum going, leading the Jaguars to their third straight finish — the longest streak in the program’s short FBS history, which began in 2012.

Texas State vs. South Alabama Prediction

Jordan McCloud. Gio Lopez. Few QB duels in the Group of Five are as electrifying as this one. Recent meetings between these teams have shown that defense often takes a back seat, paving the way for offensive fireworks.

Tip: Take command. But which side will prevail when the dust settles?

• Early down EPA per game: South Alabama, 14th; State of Texas, 15
• EPA per dropback: South Alabama, 50th; Texas State, 42
• Success rate: South Alabama, 13th; State of Texas, 16
• Net points per trip: South Alabama, 25th; State of Texas, 14

MORE: Simulate the college football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

This game could well come down to the final possession, but the advantage is on the Bobcats’ side both head-to-head and against the spread. Texas State has a clear advantage on money downs and excels offensively (25th in success rate versus 77th at South Alabama) and defensively (33rd versus 40th).

Discipline could also play a crucial role. The Jaguars have committed 20 more penalties this season, a concerning trend. While South Alabama has a +9 turnover differential compared to Texas State’s -7, the Bobcats have the steady hand of seventh-year veteran TJ McCloud at the helm. His experience minimizes costly mistakes as first-year starter Gio Lopez faces a formidable pass rush at Texas State, ranking 14th nationally with 2.91 sacks per game.

All signs point to an exciting, high-scoring battle in which the Bobcats’ lead in key areas could prove decisive.

Forecast: Texas State 34, South Alabama 31

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