The counting can begin

Counting is set to begin later on Saturday morning in Ireland’s general election as exit polls suggest a close contest between the three major parties.

Figures from Friday’s election poll show Sinn Féin slightly ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the first preference votes.

A record 174 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are expected to be elected, up from 160 in 2020 following a constituency reorganization.

There are now 43 Dáil constituencies (up from 39 in 2020), each electing between three and five TDs.

One seat in the Dáil goes to Ceann Comhairle (Speaker), so 88 TDs are required for an overall majority.

More than 680 candidates competed for the remaining 173 seats.

The counting of votes in more than 40 centers across the republic will begin at 9:00 a.m. local time, with the first results expected later in the afternoon.

Figures released at 10pm local time show Sinn Féin with 21.1% of the preference vote, Fine Gael 21% and Fianna Fáil in third place with 19.5% of the preference vote.

It was also noted that 20% of second preference votes go to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with Sinn Féin at 17%.

The election survey was conducted by Ipsos B&A for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and was based on 5,018 completed interviews outside polling stations.

The margin of error is 1.4%.

The results also suggest a tight fight between the smaller parties, with Labor, the Greens and the Social Democrats separated by less than 2%.

In the 2020 Irish general election, Sinn Féin secured 24.53% of first preference votes, while Fianna Fáil received 22.18% and Fine Gael received 20.86%.

Support for independent candidates, if exit poll numbers reflect the final result, appears to have fallen from 15% in 2020 to 12%.

Some further numbers from Friday’s election survey showed the gender gap between the different political parties and which parties voters gave their second preferences.

analysis

If the poll is correct, Sinn Féin is on course to win the popular vote for the second year in a row.

But just like in 2020, there is no clear path to power.

Outgoing coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are well placed to have the numbers needed to return to the government benches, with the support of a smaller party.

If the polls are correct, the pair could return with 75 to 80 seats, leaving them just shy of the 88 seats needed for an overall majority.

Sinn Féin will hope that, as in 2020, it does better than the poll suggests.

But it may not be enough to form a coalition of left-leaning parties without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

The Republic of Ireland elects its government using a system of proportional representation known as the only transferable vote.

Voters have the opportunity to rank candidates in their constituency according to their preference and mark their favorite with a number one, a number two next to their next choice, etc.

To be elected, candidates must achieve a certain number of votes.

The counting of the ballot papers takes place in several rounds.

Each ballot paper is initially credited to the first choice.

Once a candidate has received the required number of votes, they are elected and any remaining ballots on which they are marked as the first choice are transferred to the second-tier preferences.

Ballots are transferred to the next usable preference until all seats in the constituency are filled by candidates who have met the quota.

Because of the voting system, counting can sometimes take several days, and forming a government can take even longer.

After the last general election in 2020, it took four months for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens to reach an agreement to form a government.

Sinn Féin became the leading opposition party and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have already ruled them out as potential coalition partners.

The first sitting of the new Dáil (lower house of Parliament) will take place on December 18, but it is unlikely that coalition negotiations will be completed by then.

A government is officially formed when the Dáil votes to appoint a new Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister). However, this is not expected before 2025.