The killing of the Chabad emissary tests the UAE's relations with Israel

The details of the kidnapping and murder of Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the United Arab Emirates remain unclear. However, there is cautious speculation that Iran was behind the attack. Iran has long sought to target Israeli individuals and assets abroad. In this context, there have been numerous reports of Mossad operations to thwart such attempts in collaboration with foreign intelligence services around the world.

But the UAE is not just another place for such incidents. The murder of a religious figure linked to Israel undoubtedly embarrasses Emirati authorities, who pride themselves on promoting cultural and religious tolerance. Despite growing pressure – particularly from Iran and in the context of Israel’s ongoing war – the UAE has maintained its ties with Israel.

The ongoing war with no apparent diplomatic solution has frustrated many in the Arab world, including the United Arab Emirates. The Emirates plays a significant diplomatic and humanitarian role in Gaza and is the most active Arab state in providing aid, water and medical assistance to Gazans.

Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has been criticized for sticking to the normalization agreement with Israel despite the extensive destruction in Gaza and the high number of Palestinian deaths. The killing of a Chabad emissary highlights the rising costs the UAE is paying to maintain its ties with Israel.

These pressures are beginning to take their toll, reflected in recent shifts in Emirati rhetoric. UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, the Crown Prince’s brother, recently stated that his country would not support post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Gaza (i.e. “the day after”) without the establishment of a Palestinian state. This suggests a realignment of the Emirati stance, with future relations with Israel increasingly influenced by the Palestinian issue.

Illustrative image of Chabad envoy to the United Arab Emirates, Rabbi Zvi Kogan (Credit: Canva, REUTERS/Christopher Pike SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT LAW)

Breaking off relations with Israel is not up for debate for the time being. However, relations have been stagnating for some time, at least publicly. Emirati leaders believe it is prudent to maintain a measured distance from Israel, in part because of growing criticism on the Arab street and fears that this discontent could turn against them.

Kogan’s murder could increase local resistance to the presence of Israelis in the Gulf state. This likely explains Abu Dhabi’s attempt to downplay the incident and portray Kogan as a Moldovan citizen.

The murder also tests the UAE’s relations with Iran. Since 2019, the Emirates have been trying to improve relations with their most threatening neighbor, the Shiite power center in the east. This cautious relaxation reflects the UAE’s traditional hedging strategy and its relative weakness compared to Iran.

Iran and its proxies

Like other Arab states, the UAE is rightly afraid of Iran and its proxies. On the one hand, Iran is trying to improve relations with the Gulf states in order to break its international isolation. On the other hand, it engages in subversive and terrorist activities and puts pressure on these countries to avoid intensifying relations with Israel.

Iran has been hesitant to take action against Israel within the Gulf states, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, which is a global economic and trade center. This makes the UAE, especially Dubai, an important trading partner for Iran (around $30 billion per year). Iran likely used proxies to carry out the killing to conceal its involvement and minimize possible damage to its relations with the Emirates.

Stay up to date with the latest news!

Subscribe to the Jerusalem Post newsletter

Israeli politicians should avoid their usual public threats and downplay Iran’s role in this incident to avoid embarrassment for Emiratis. Publicly attributing the attack to Iran undermines the UAE’s image as a safe state while escalating tensions between the UAE and Iran.

Israel has a vested interest in maintaining robust and prosperous relations with the United Arab Emirates, currently the warmest peace that binds Israel to any Arab state. However, this warm peace could quickly cool down.

The author is a senior researcher specializing in Gulf States at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and a former senior official in Israel’s National Security Council. He is a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC

The killing of the Chabad emissary tests the UAE’s relations with Israel

ByAmelia Journalton

Iran and its proxies

By Amelia Journalton

Related Post

Death of a snowboarder in the Alps brings to mind avalanche danger: NPR

최상목 “韓대행 탄핵은 내각전체에 대한 탄핵…재고해달라“｜동아일보

Gerard Butler had a failed Mummy movie before Brendan Fraser’s hit

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You missed

Death of a snowboarder in the Alps brings to mind avalanche danger: NPR

최상목 “韓대행 탄핵은 내각전체에 대한 탄핵…재고해달라“｜동아일보

Gerard Butler had a failed Mummy movie before Brendan Fraser’s hit

Long-term forecast: Lionsgate is hoping for success with DEN OF THIEVES: PANTERA